Question

The following table lists the activities needed to complete a project. The first column lists the activities and the “follows” column shows which other activity or activities, (if any), must be completed before these activities can start. The remaining columns give three estimates of the activity duration; the mean duration calculated from these estimates and standard deviation assuming a beta distribution of activity duration.

Activity

Follows

Estimates of durations (days) Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic

A	--	3	6	15
B	A	8	14	26
C	A	1	2	9
D	B	2	5	14
E	C	5	7	21
F	D	2	4	12
G	B, E	6	9	18
H	F	1	3	5
I	D, G	2	3	10
J	G	5	7	15

e) What is the probability that the project will be completed between 38 and 45 days? Show your workings! (4 points)
  
f) Answer the project manager’s question:
“I want to tell the client a project length which I am 89.97% sure that we can meet _- What figure should I give them?" (4 points)

Answer 1

Answer:-

Given That:-

The following table lists the activities needed to complete a project. The first column lists the activities and the “follows” column shows which other activity or activities, (if any), must be completed before these activities can start. The remaining columns give three estimates of the activity duration; the mean duration calculated from these estimates and standard deviation assuming a beta distribution of activity duration.

e) What is the probability that the project will be completed between 38 and 45 days? Show your workings! (4 points)

P(38 < X < 45)

= P(-0.449 < Z < 1.12429)

= P(Z < 1.124) - P(Z < -0.449)

= 0.86949 - 0.32672

= 0.54277

Therefore Probability that project will complete between 38 & 45 days is 0.5427
  
f) Answer the project manager’s question:
“I want to tell the client a project length which I am 89.97% sure that we can meet - What figure should I give them?" (4 points)

P(Z) = 89.97

Therefore Z = 1.27984

X = Z * 4.447 + 40

= 45.69

   46

Therefore Manager can say project will be completed till 46 days with 89.97% surity.

Plz like it....,