Answer with reference to the article “Automation, Productivity, and Growth” (Spence, 26 August 2015)

To facilitate your answers, you are strongly advised to adopt direct quotes from the article as much as possible.

a. What results on productivity and unemployment do we normally expect from automation? Do we see this trend in the US?

b. The author claims that we do not see these trends as expected in (a). Why not? Explain with reference to the role of tradable vs. non-tradable sectors.

c. How would the advancement of global supply chains affect the productivity figures in the age of digital technology? Why is this so?

Automation, Productivity, and Growth

It seems obvious that if a business invests in automation, its workforce – though possibly reduced – will be more productive. So why do the statistics tell a different story?

In advanced economies, where plenty of sectors have both the money and the will to invest in automation, growth in productivity (measured by value added per employee or hours worked) has been low for at least 15 years. And, in the years since the 2008 global financial crisis, these countries’ overall economic growth has been meager, too – just 4% or less on average.

One explanation is that the advanced economies had taken on too much debt and needed to deleverage, contributing to a pattern of public-sector underinvestment and depressing consumption and private investment as well. But deleveraging is a temporary process, not one that limits growth indefinitely. In the long term, overall economic growth depends on growth in the labor force and its productivity.

Hence the question on the minds of politicians and economists alike: Is the productivity slowdown a permanent condition and constraint on growth, or is it a transitional phenomenon?

There is no easy answer – not least because of the wide range of factors contributing to the trend. Beyond public-sector underinvestment, there is monetary policy, which, whatever its benefits and costs, has shifted corporate use of cash toward stock buybacks, while real investment has remained subdued.

Meanwhile, information technology and digital networks have automated a range of white- and blue-collar jobs. One might have expected this transition, which reached its pivotal year in the United States in 2000, to cause unemployment (at least until the economy adjusted), accompanied by a rise in productivity. But, in the years leading up to the 2008 crisis, US data show that productivity trended downward; and, until the crisis, unemployment did not rise significantly.

One explanation is that employment in the years before the crisis was being propped up by credit-fueled demand. Only when the credit bubble burst – triggering an abrupt adjustment, rather than the gradual adaptation of skills and human capital that would have occurred in more normal times – did millions of workers suddenly find themselves unemployed. The implication is that the economic logic equating automation with increased productivity has not been invalidated; its proof has merely been delayed.

But there is more to the productivity conundrum than the 2008 crisis. In the two decades that preceded the crisis, the sector of the US economy that produces internationally tradable goods and services – one-third of overall output – failed to generate any increase in jobs, even though it was growing faster than the non-tradable sector in terms of value added.

Most of the job losses in the tradable sector were in manufacturing industries, especially after the year 2000. Although some of the losses may have resulted from productivity gains from information technology and digitization, many occurred when companies shifted segments of their supply chains to other parts of the global economy, particularly China.

By contrast, the US non-tradable sector – two-thirds of the economy – recorded large increases in employment in the years before 2008. However, these jobs – often in domestic services – usually generated lower value added than the manufacturing jobs that had disappeared. This is partly because the tradable sector was shifting toward employees with high levels of skill and education. In that sense, productivity rose in the tradable sector, although structural shifts in the global economy were surely as important as employees becoming more efficient at doing the same things.

Unfortunately for advanced economies, the gains in per capita value added in the tradable sector were not large enough to overcome the effect of moving labor from manufacturing jobs to non-tradable service jobs (many of which existed only because of credit-fueled domestic demand in the halcyon days before 2008). Hence the muted overall productivity gains.

Meanwhile, as developing economies become richer, they, too, will invest in technology in order to cope with rising labor costs (a trend already evident in China). As a result, the high-water mark for global productivity and GDP growth may have been reached.

The organizing principle of global supply chains for most of the post-war period has been to move production toward low-cost pools of labor, because labor was and is the least mobile of economic factors (labor, capital, and knowledge). That will remain true for high-value-added services that defy automation. But for capital-intensive digital technologies, the organizing principle will change: production will move toward final markets, which will increasingly be found not just in advanced countries, but also in emerging economies as their middle classes expand.

Martin Baily and James Manyika recently pointed out that we have seen this move before. In the 1980’s, Robert Solow and Stephen Roach separately argued that IT investment was showing no impact on productivity. Then the Internet became generally available, businesses reorganized themselves and their global supply chains, and productivity accelerated.

The dot-com bubble of the late 1990s was a misestimate of the timing, not the magnitude, of the digital revolution. Likewise, Manyika and Baily argue that the much-discussed “Internet of Things” is probably some years away from showing up in aggregate productivity data.

Organizations, businesses, and people all have to adapt to the technologically driven shifts in our economies’ structure. These transitions will be lengthy, rewarding some and forcing difficult adjustments on others, and their productivity effects will not appear in aggregate data for some time. But those who move first are likely to benefit the most.

what should Fitbit do to Improve its social media presence and what are the possible pro and cons to do so?

East Coast Warehouse Club   

Frank​ O'Connor, CFO of East Coast Warehouse​ Club, was reviewing notes from the annual​ shareholders' meeting the week before. Most of the meeting was​ routine: greetings from the CEO and chairman of the​ board, review of last​ year's results, plans for the coming​ year, election of directors​ (no surprises), ratification of the​ auditors, and so on. The only unexpected incident occurred during a​ question-and-answer period with the CFO when a major institutional shareholder asked if and when the company expected to start paying dividends. The question was met with loud applause and a few cheers of​ "Hear, hear!" Frank​ answered, not quite​ truthfully, that the matter was being discussed internally and was on the agenda for the next board of​ directors' meeting. In any​ case, it was on the agenda now.

When the directors met the following​ month, they looked over a report they had asked the CFO to compile on the pros and cons of instituting dividends. The report first provided a review of the​ company's financial situation. A recent economic downturn and high energy prices had been devastating for other​retailers, but had actually been good for East Coast because​ hard-pressed consumers looked for the lowest prices on everything from groceries to computers to automobile tires and batteries. East Coast had recently added gas pumps to many locations and could sell gasoline for a few cents less per gallon than other retailers. The gas business was​ thriving, and company research showed that gas sales brought customers to the stores for other purchases. On the other​ hand, East​ Coast's growth policy had become cautious. Its extensive real estate holdings were losing value in a declining​ market, and the company was unwilling to build stores so close together that it would be competing with itself or so far from its regional base that distribution would become inefficient. Ten percent of total assets were now in cash and​ short-term investments. ​ Long-term debt had fallen from 38% of assets a few years ago to less than 22%.

Cash flow from operations was more than double the investment in new assets.

There was no question that East Coast could pay a​ dividend, but should​ it? Frank wondered what some of his bright young staffers long dash—several of whom had used East​ Coast's generous education benefits to obtain MBA —would have to say about this​ question, so he put it on the agenda for the regular Wednesday afternoon staff meeting.

Questions

1.  The following is a partial list of comments made by staffers at the meeting. To help Frank make a​ decision, identify the dividend policy or theory each reflects and comment on its usefulness.

a. ​ "What difference does it make if we pay dividends or​ not? Shareholders can always sell a few shares and make their own​ dividends." ​ Response: ​ "That works for the big​ shareholders, but what about the little​ guys?"

b. ​ "From a tax​ perspective, our shareholders would be better off paying the capital gains tax than paying the tax on​ dividends."

c. ​ "Stock prices go up and down due to market factors we​ can't control. A dividend is something you can count​ on."

d.  ​"Some of our shareholders want dividends. You heard that at the​ shareholders' meeting." ​ Response: ​ "That's right, ​ but, of​ course, maybe some of them​ don't. They might prefer that we try to grow the business​ faster."

e. ​ "Our business has been doing​ well, but​ we're in tough times. A lot of retailers are​ hurting, and the market is down. By paying a​ dividend, we send a message to our shareholders that we expect to stay strong for the foreseeable​ future."

f.  ​"Before we think of paying​ dividends, we should be sure we have enough cash to cover our operating expenses and capital​ budget." ​ Response: ​ "That's right, and once we start paying​ dividends, we will never be able to cut​ them."

2.  When Frank thought he had gathered enough ideas about dividend theory and​ policy, he asked the following​ question: ​ "Let's say we decide that our shareholders want some kind of distribution. ​ What's the best way to do​ it?" Evaluate the merits of the following suggestions.

a. ​ "How about a 20% or 30% stock​ dividend? They will feel as if​ they're getting​ something, and it​ won't use any​ cash."

What mutual funds would you recommend for a 40 years old single man who is saving for his retirement? He hopes to retire at age 70. He is a moderate risk taker. He will definitely need these funds for living expense, after retirement. Be very specific in your recommendations.

What mutual funds would you recommend for a 65 year old retired school teacher who is extremely conservative in her investing? She doesn’t want to lose one dollar. She has retirement money to live on but she is concerned about inflation and taxes. What recommendations do you have for her? Be very specific in your recommendations. She has 100,000 dollars to invest and hopes to never need the money, but needs to know it is there for a rainy day.

1.Identify and describe the two primary factors that determine whether a volcanic eruption is relatively violent or not, and how these factors relate to the viscosity of a magma.

2.Identify and describe the threats posed by volcanoes, other than lava flows.

3.Name the three main types of volcanoes and describe how they are different (size, shape, eruption violence)

4.How are volcanic activity, in general, and plate tectonics related?

5.How can volcanoes be monitored in order to predict eruptions?

6.In the Vocab section, you are asked to define several intrusions (sills, dikes, laccoliths, batholiths). How are these similar and different from each other?

A wing designer comes up with two wing designs with different efficiency factors for a highaltitude
reconnaissance aircraft. The aircraft flies in steady, level flight at low subsonic cruise
speeds so that it can obtain better images of the ground underneath. If the weight, engine
thrust, aircraft speed and altitude are fixed, and induced drag is always the same fraction of
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Write a java application that will read a set of values from the user and stores them in array a[]. The application should ask the user for the number of values he will enter. You need to do the following methods: 1. Read: This method will read n values from the user and store them in an array a 2. Print: this method will print the array as given in the sample output 3. maxEven: This method will find the maximum value of the even numbers 4. DrawSquarec: this method will draw a square using the elements of the array (see sample) Sample Output How many elements you have:5 Enter the elements: 10 1 4 5 6 The array is: 10 1 4 5 6 The maximum even number is 10 10 10 10 10 10
11111
44444

55555

66666

When beginning a study, the researcher should construct a research question or problem that should be addressed in the study. Describe your understanding of a research question and establish the importance of this research question as a means of guiding the overall direction of the research paper. Answer in essay format.

"With the information you now have, how would you suggest improving projects that you have worked on?"

Do research to find out more about DEF CON, one of the world’s largest hacker conventions, held annually in Las Vegas, Nevada. Who attends this conference, and what sort of topics are covered? Is there value in IS security professionals attending this conference? Why or why not?

Objective: Only attempt this assignment after thoroughly reading Chapter 4 of the Visual Basic text. The objective of the assignment is to write a program in Visual Basic that applies decision logic within the program. Another objective is to work through any syntax errors encountered (debugging) to develop a correct solution that is free of errors.

Description: Create a working Visual Basic solution using the Visual Studio IDE that accepts two numbers from the user and displays one of the following messages: First is larger, Second is larger, Numbers are equal. Provided your logic from last week was correct, you can use the pseudocode and flowchart from last's week's assignment to help you code your solution. After you output one of the three messages, calculate the average of the 2 numbers and display it for the user.

Requirements: For full credit, make sure that you create your program using Visual Studio. Also make sure that the program compiles (builds) successfully and without any errors. To test the logic of your program, make sure to try many different combinations of numbers. Ensure that in addition to displaying one of the three messages to the user that you also calculate and display the average as described.

Write a memo for 120 words to the accounting department asking them to attend a training scheduled on Saturday to learn about the new software the company has adopted. Write a memo to accounting department telling them what to be done.

Memo Template

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