In: Economics
Interdependence among states suggests that power only harms multiple interests of states and other actors
In 1913, Normal Angell declared that the use of military force was now economically futile had become interconnected that harming the enemy's property would equate to harming your own. Almost a century later, Steven Pinker argues,"Though the relationship between America and China is far from warm, we are unlikely to declare war on them or vice versa. Mortality aside, they make too much of our stuff and we owe them too much money." The theory that increased economic interdependence reduces conflict. One should expect that the higher the benefit of trade, the higher the cost of a potential conflict to based on these observations. On a point, the value of trade may become so high that the state in question has become economically dependent on another. A 2014 Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey indicates that only a minority of Americans see China as a critical threat, compared to a majority in the mid-1990s. High levels of economic interdependence have not always resulted in peace. The decades preceding WW1 saw an unprecedented growth in international trade, communication, and interconnectivity but needless to say.
Economic interdependence theory makes the assumption that conflict will reduce or cut-off trade. This assumption expect that the moment two states are officially adversaries,fear of relative gains. There are many historical examples of trade between warring states carrying on during war time. Even during WW2, there are numerous examples of American firms continuing to trade strategic goods with Nazi Germany. In the results, Anderton and Carter conducted an interrupted timeseries study on the effect war has on trade. The purpose of this section is to demonstrate that the pacifying effect of economic interdependence is not constant.
One variable is the relative levels of economic dependence. Another variable is the specifics of what is being traded. Copeland presents another variable, namely expectations of trade. Economic interdependence with neighbouring states increased the likelihood of conflict did indeed decrease.
The strength of the pacifying effect of economic interdependence is subject to change depending on a series of dynamic variables. Interdependence leads to a higher chance of conflict through an erosion of credibility.
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