Question

An estimate of total revenue, costs and profits from producing ventilators for the COVID-19 pandemic. Please provide references.

Answer 1

Ans. Revenue from producing ventilators for the covid 19 pandadmic :-

• The U.S (north america) has introduced the National Newspaper and Defense Development (NNDD) Act, approving the manufacture of ventilators by general motors Chrysler, general motors, Toyota, and other automobile firms. Based on the likely scenario, the ventilator market is projected to rise by 150.1 percent in 2020, with a revenue of US$ 11.70 billion. The revenue value has jumped up from US$ 4.68 billion in 2019. moreover, by 2026, the ventilators market size is expected to hit US$ 5.20 billion, with a CAGR of -12.64 percent from 2020 to 2026. In Asia Pacific region, estimation of demand of Ventilator in China is at 202.8 thousands units in 2020, compared to 14.7 thousands units in 2019. In 2020, production is projected to increase by 1279.6 percent. The demand for Ventilators will decrease based on the contamination of COVID-19, and the excess mask manufacturing capacity will be faced with greater adjustment. Additionally, the overall ventilator production is expected to fall back in 2021, bringing the ventilators to demand in China at 48.8 K units, with a CAGR of -21.13 percent from 2020 to 2026. Because of serious shortage of ventilators in Europe , the European Commission reveal ed on March 25th that the supply chain of ventilators throughout Europe could meet only 10% of the demand. Italy and Spain have opted not to provide ventilators for patients over the age of 60 and elderly patients over the age of 65, respectively. The total demand gap can hit around 1281 K units, and the current domestic production capacity or import to be resolved is urgently needed. The U.S., Italy, and Spain have especially acute gaps in demand among all the countries. This rush in demand is anticipate to increase the European market share.

Cost from producing ventilators for the covid 19 pandadmic :-

• According to the study of PHICOR (Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research) team at the City University of New York, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy along with the Infectious Disease Clinical Outcomes Research Unit at Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute, Harbor-UCLA Medical Center and Torrance Memorial Medical Center. A computer simulation model is developed by the team in U.S. that could simulate what would happen if different fraction of the population end up getting infected with the COVID-19 coronavirus. This model informs that each infected person would develop different symptoms after some period of time and, depending upon the intensity of those symptoms, visit clinics, emergency departments, or hospitals. The resources required by each patient such as health care personnel time, time to time medication, hospital beds, and ventilators would be based on the each patient's health status patient. The model also tracks the resources invovled, the associated costs, and the outcomes for each patient. For example, if 20% of the U.S. population were to become infected by COVID-19 coronavirus, then the average of 11.2 million hospitalizations and 1.6 million ventilators likely to be used which costs an average of $163.4 billion in direct medical costs during the course of the infection. Acc. to the study, the factors that could push up this amount to 13.4 million hospitalizations and 2.3 million ventilators used, costing an average of $214.5 billion. If 50 % of the U.S. population were to get infected by coronavirus, there would be 27.9 million of patients to be hospitalized, 4.1 million ventilators needed and 156.2 million hospital bed days accrued, costing an average of $408.8 billion in direct medical costs during the course of the infection. This increases to 44.6 million hospitalizations, 6.5 million ventilators used and 249.5 million hospital bed days (general ward plus ICU bed days) incurred, costing an average of $654 billion during the course of the infection if 80% of the U.S. population were to get infected. The significant difference in medical costs when various proportions of the population get infected show the value of any strategies that could reduce infections and, conversely, the potential cost of simply letting the virus run its course.