Question

please give me some ideas and data for my thesis/ proposal for "extreme weather prediction and analysis'

Answer 1

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Answer:

Some Information about Extreme weather prediction and analysis:

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, wind storms, heatwaves, floods and droughts are all likely to become more common and more severe in the future. We work to provide early warnings of weather events such as these – made a few days ahead of the event and based on medium-range forecasts – to allow some time for contingency plans to be put in place.

We have achieved good results in this area. In particular, the track forecasts of tropical cyclones were improved, which has been confirmed by tropical cyclone centres. In recent years we have provided reliable medium-range forecasts for a range of severe weather events.

The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) was developed at ECMWF as a tool to provide forecasters with general initial guidance on potential extreme weather events. It is constructed specifically to highlight occasions when there is a significant shift in the current ENS towards the extreme of the model climate. The EFI is produced for a number of important weather parameters: 2 metre minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, total precipitation, snowfall, wind gust and mean wind speed, and for maximum significant wave height.

The complementary Shift Of Tails (SOT) provides information about how extreme an event might be. Positive values of the SOT indicate that at least 10% of the ensemble members are above the 99th percentile of the model climate. The higher the SOT value is, the further this top 10% of the ensemble forecast is beyond the model climate.