Question

Multiple Regression Analysis was used to find out which X variable have relationship with my Y variable (reduce overspending on food and beverage), and how strong relationship is.FIT A FIRST ORDER AUTO AGGRESSIVE MODEL (AR(1) USING Y(T) AS THE RESPONSE VARIABLE Y (T-1) AS THE INPUT VARIABLE. RECORD THE REGRESSION EQUATION. CALCULATE THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODELS AND CALCULATE A MOVING AVERAGE MODEL.

4-Mar	$31.69
5-Mar	$4.19
5-Mar	$19.01
5-Mar	$7.99
6-Mar	$3.32
6-Mar	$57.11
7-Mar	$4.07
8-Mar	$2.49
8-Mar	$6.30
11-Mar	$4.48
11-Mar	$52.32
13-Mar	$32.21
13-Mar	$7.84
13-Mar	$2.99
14-Mar	$10.58
14-Mar	$2.99
15-Mar	$4.24
16-Mar	$24.00
	$277.82

Answer 1

1) FIRST ORDER AUTO AGGRESSIVE MODEL (AR(1) USING Y(T) AS THE RESPONSE VARIABLE Y (T-1)

The regression equation is
Y = 15.8 - 0.087 Y (T-1)

2) The Exponential smoothing model is

3) The Moving Average model is

Moving Average of Length 2 results

Time	Y	MA	Predict	Error
4-Mar	31.69	*	*	*
5-Mar	4.19	17.94	*	*
5-Mar	19.01	11.6	17.94	1.07
5-Mar	7.99	13.5	11.6	-3.61
6-Mar	3.32	5.655	13.5	-10.18
6-Mar	57.11	30.215	5.655	51.455
7-Mar	4.07	30.59	30.215	-26.145
8-Mar	2.49	3.28	30.59	-28.1
8-Mar	6.3	4.395	3.28	3.02
11-Mar	4.48	5.39	4.395	0.085
11-Mar	52.32	28.4	5.39	46.93
13-Mar	32.21	42.265	28.4	3.81
13-Mar	7.84	20.025	42.265	-34.425
13-Mar	2.99	5.415	20.025	-17.035
14-Mar	10.58	6.785	5.415	5.165
14-Mar	2.99	6.785	6.785	-3.795
15-Mar	4.24	3.615	6.785	-2.545
16-Mar	24	14.12	3.615	20.385