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In: Math

Here are quarterly data for the past two years, from these data, prepare a forecast for...

Here are quarterly data for the past two years, from these data, prepare a forecast for the upcoming year using decompostion. foreccast years 9 to 12. FORECAST ERROR?

Period Actual period Actual
1 300 5 416
2 540 6 760
3 885 7 1191
4 580 8 760

Solutions

Expert Solution

By running regression of the form Y = a+bX

Where Y is actual and X is period, we get results of the form,

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.61
R Square 0.37
Adjusted R Square 0.27
Standard Error 241.49
Observations 8
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1         2,09,738.67      2,09,738.67                     3.60                      0.11
Residual 6         3,49,895.33          58,315.89
Total 7         5,59,634.00
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 361.00 188.17 1.92 0.10 -99.42 821.42
Period 70.67 37.26 1.90 0.11 -20.51 161.84
Period Actual
1 300
2 540
3 885
4 580
5 416
6 760
7 1191
8 760
9 997
10 1068
11 1138

Forecasts,

Period 9 = 361+70.67*9 = 997.03

Period 10 = 361+70.67*10 = 1067.7

Period 11 = 361+70.67*11 = 1138..37

milcah answered 1 year ago
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