Question
In: Statistics and Probability
The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold) for a college textbook over the past three...
The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold) for a college textbook over the past three years follow.
Click on the datafile logo to reference the data.
quarter year 1 year 2 year 3
1 1690 1800 1850
2 940 900 1100
3 2625 2900 2930
4 2500 2360 2615
e. Deseasonalize the time series (to 3 decimals).
| Year | Quarter | Deseasonalized Value |
| 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | ||
| 3 | ||
| 4 | ||
| 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | ||
| 3 | ||
| 4 | ||
| 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | ||
| 3 | ||
| 4 |
f. Compute the linear trend equation for the
deseasonalized data (to 1 decimal if necessary).
Deseasonalized Value =____ +____ Period
Compute the forecast sales using the linear trend equation (to 1 decimal).
| Forecast for quarter 1 | |
| Forecast for quarter 2 | |
| Forecast for quarter 3 | |
| Forecast for quarter 4 |
g. Adjust the linear trend forecasts using the adjusted seasonal indexes computed in part (c) (to the nearest whole number).
| Forecast for quarter 1 | |
| Forecast for quarter 2 | |
| Forecast for quarter 3 | |
| Forecast for quarter 4 |
Solutions
Expert Solution
(e)
The following table shows the calculations:
(f)
Using Excel, obtain the estimated regression equation:
Deseasonalized Value = 1851 + 25.1t
Input data:
The Excel Output
Quarter1: Forecast 1851 +25.1(13) = 2178.105
Quarter2: Forecast 1851 +25.1(14) =2203.272
Quarter3: Forecast 1851 + 25.1(15)=2228.440
Quarter4: Forecast 1851 +25.1(16) =2253.608
(g)
The following table shows the calculations:
orchestra answered 1 year agoRelated Solutions
The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold) for a college textbook over the past three...
The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold) for a college
textbook over the past three years follow:
Year
Quarter
Sales
1
1
1690
2
940
3
2625
4
2500
2
1
1800
2
900
3
2900
4
2360
3
1
1850
2
1100
3
4
2930
2615
a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in
the data?
b. Show the four‐quarter and centered moving average values for
this time series.
c. Compute the seasonal and...
The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold) for a college textbook over the past three...
The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold) for a college
textbook over the past three years follow. Quarter Year 1 Year 2
Year 3 1 1690 1800 1850 2 940 900 1100 3 2625 2900 2930 4 2500 2360
2615
a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in
the data?
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Year
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Year 3
1690
1800
1850
940
900
1100
2625
2900
2930
2500
2360
2615
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Year
Quarter
Period
Sales
1
1
1
1700
1
2
2
1000
1
3
3
2700
1
4
4
2500
2
1
5
1800
2
2
6
900
2
3
7
2900
2
4
8
2400
3
1
9
1800
3
2
10
1100
3
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11
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3
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QUESTION 13 Questions 13-15 The information of the numbers of copies of a college textbook sold...
QUESTION 13
Questions 13-15
The information of the numbers of copies of a college textbook
sold quarterly over the past four years was used. Since
the time series has trend and seasonal pattern, to forecast the
quarterly sales of the textbook, the following regression equation
was found: Y't = 2100 -
640Qtr1-1250Qtr2 + 312Qtr3 + 27t ,
where Qtr1t, Qtr2t, and Qtr3t are
dummy variables corresponding to Quarters 1, 2 and 3, and t = time
period.
Q13. The sales forecast...
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Suppose that the following are the quarterly sales data for the past 7 years. 1.Construct a...
Suppose that the following are the quarterly sales data for the
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2.Calculate 4-quarter moving average values for this time series
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3.Calculate centered moving average values and seasonal indexes
(column F and G).
4.Calculate seasonal indexes (column J) for the four
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5.Copy seasonal indexes (column J) to column O, and calculate
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Week
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Week
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1
4444
6
5757
2
4545
7
6565
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4646
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5555
4
5151
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6464
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Use trend projection with regression to forecast sales for
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What are the error measures (CFE, MSE,
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