Question

In: Statistics and Probability

The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold) for a college textbook over the past three...

The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold) for a college textbook over the past three years follow.

Click on the datafile logo to reference the data.

quarter year 1 year 2 year 3  

1 1690 1800 1850

2 940 900 1100

3 2625 2900 2930

4 2500    2360    2615

e. Deseasonalize the time series (to 3 decimals).

Year Quarter Deseasonalized Value
1 1
2
3
4
2 1
2
3
4
3 1
2
3
4

f. Compute the linear trend equation for the deseasonalized data (to 1 decimal if necessary).
Deseasonalized Value =____ +____ Period

Compute the forecast sales using the linear trend equation (to 1 decimal).

Forecast for quarter 1
Forecast for quarter 2
Forecast for quarter 3
Forecast for quarter 4

g. Adjust the linear trend forecasts using the adjusted seasonal indexes computed in part (c) (to the nearest whole number).

Forecast for quarter 1
Forecast for quarter 2
Forecast for quarter 3
Forecast for quarter 4

Solutions

Expert Solution

(e)

The following table shows the calculations:

(f)

Using Excel, obtain the estimated regression equation:

Deseasonalized Value = 1851 + 25.1t

Input data:

The Excel Output

Quarter1: Forecast 1851 +25.1(13) = 2178.105

Quarter2: Forecast 1851 +25.1(14) =2203.272

Quarter3: Forecast 1851 + 25.1(15)=2228.440

Quarter4: Forecast 1851 +25.1(16) =2253.608

(g)

The following table shows the calculations:

orchestra answered 2 years ago
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