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In: Operations Management

A manufacturing area needs to forecast workhours. This is a slightly different project. The data for...

A manufacturing area needs to forecast workhours. This is a slightly different project. The data for several months is supplied below. Beside each of the actual numbers in black, the forecast is provided in red. The goal is to calculate three stats on the data: MAD, MAPE, and the tracking signal. Be careful since the data is listed beginning with the most recent. Please round to two decimal places. For MAPE, please convert to a percentage before rounding. Do not enter the percent sign.

Jul 2020: 1693, 1591 Jun 2020: 1408, 1281 May 2020: 1945, 2237 Apr 2020: 1197, 1125 Mar 2020: 1985, 2084 Feb 2020: 1584, 1378
Jan 2020: 1117, 1050 Dec 2019: 1660, 1743 Nov 2019: 1113, 968 Oct 2019: 1127, 958 Sep 2019: 1075, 1204 Aug 2019: 1253, 1103
Jul 2019: 1633, 1437 Jun 2019: 1552, 1443 May 2019: 1689, 1486 Apr 2019: 1775, 1988 Mar 2019: 1523, 1355 Feb 2019: 1634, 1879
Jan 2019: 1675, 1910 Dec 2018: 1488, 1637 Nov 2018: 1399, 1581 Oct 2018: 1071, 975 Sep 2018: 1721, 1807 Aug 2018: 1389, 1195
Jul 2018: 1656, 1457 Jun 2018: 1342, 1409 May 2018: 1022, 910 Apr 2018: 1599, 1391 Mar 2018: 1558, 1636 Feb 2018: 1440, 1310
Jan 2018: 1903, 2169 Dec 2017: 1637, 1833 Nov 2017: 1052, 999 Oct 2017: 1092, 1256 Sep 2017: 1955, 1740 Aug 2017: 1623, 1866
Jul 2017: 1682, 1917
Please enter MAD here--->
Please enter MAPE % here--->
Please enter the tracking signal here--->

Solutions

Expert Solution

Question: A manufacturing area needs to forecast workhours. This is a slightly different project. The data for several months is supplied below. Beside each of the actual numbers in black, the forecast is provided in red. The goal is to calculate three stats on the data: MAD, MAPE, and the tracking signal. Be careful since the data is listed beginning with the most recent. Please round to two decimal places. For MAPE, please convert to a percentage before rounding. Do not enter the percent sign.

Answer: (Make sure to recheck the supplied data with my calculations. Here at my end i couldn't differentiate actual and forecast value colors. And intermediate values are not rounded, only output values are rounded to two decimals. For your convenience i have also provided excel formulas used, refer accordingly)

MAD = 159

MAPE % = 10.60

Tracking Signal = -0.26

Explanation:

Overall Calculation:

Excel Formulas Used:

Formulas:

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) = |Error| / n

Here: |Error| = |Actual - Forecast|

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) = (|Error| / Actual) x 100

Running Sum of Forecast Error (RSFE) = Error

Tracking Signal (TS) = (RSFE / MAD)

keosha answered 1 year ago
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