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In: Statistics and Probability

Two closely related species of mushrooms (I and H) are difficult to identify without the aid...

Two closely related species of mushrooms (I and H) are difficult to identify without the aid of a microscope. One method used in the field to separate the two species is to note the presence or absence of a ring on the stalk of the plant. Ninety percent of species I and 20% of species II have the ring. It is also known that in the particular area where the mushrooms are being studied, 70% of them are species I.

(a) Suppose the field worker finds a mushroom with a ring and decides it belongs to species I. What is the probability that he is correct?

(b) If mushrooms with rings are classified as species I and those without as species II, what proportion of mushrooms will be cor­rectly classified?

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