In: Statistics and Probability
Two closely related species of mushrooms (I and H) are difficult to identify without the aid of a microscope. One method used in the field to separate the two species is to note the presence or absence of a ring on the stalk of the plant. Ninety percent of species I and 20% of species II have the ring. It is also known that in the particular area where the mushrooms are being studied, 70% of them are species I.
(a) Suppose the field worker finds a mushroom with a ring and decides it belongs to species I. What is the probability that he is correct?
(b) If mushrooms with rings are classified as species I and those without as species II, what proportion of mushrooms will be correctly classified?