Question

how are we socially politically and economically affected by environmental changes such as greenhouse gases. what are the potential outcomes that the social political and economical parties will face due to greenhouse gases

Answer 1

GREEN HOUSE EFFECT :

The greenhouse effect is a natural process by which some of the radiant heat from the Sun is captured in the lower atmosphere of the Earth, thus maintaining the temperature of the Earth's surface. The gases that help capture the heat, called “greenhouse gases,“ include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and a variety of manufactured chemicals. Some are emitted from natural sources; others are anthropogenic, resulting from human activities.

IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES :

1.Social impact:

As dramatic as the effects of climate change are expected to be on the natural world, the projected changes to human society may be even more devastating.

Agricultural systems will likely be dealt a crippling blow. Though growing seasons in some areas will expand, the combined impacts of drought, severe weather, lack of accumulated snowmelt, greater number and diversity of pests, lower groundwater tables and a loss of arable land could cause severe crop failures and livestock shortages worldwide.

North Carolina State University also notes that carbon dioxide is affecting plant growth. Though CO2 can increase the growth of plants, the plants may become less nutritious.

This loss of food security may, in turn, create havoc in international food markets and could spark famines, food riots, political instability and civil unrest worldwide.

In addition to less nutritious food, the effect of global warming on human health is also expected to be serious. The American Medical Association has reported an increase in mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever, as well as a rise in cases of chronic conditions like asthma, most likely as a direct result of global warming. The 2016 outbreak of Zika virus, a mosquito-borne illness, highlighted the dangers of climate change. The disease causes devastating birth defects in fetuses when pregnant women are infected, and climate change could make higher-latitude areas habitable for the mosquitos that spread the disease, experts said. Longer, hotter summers could also lead to the spread of tick-borne illnesses.

2. Economical Impact :

Over half of the human population lives within 100 kilometers of the sea. Most of this population lives in urban areas that serve as seaports. A measurable rise in sea level will have a severe economic impact on low lying coastal areas and islands, for examples, increasing the beach erosion rates along coastlines, rising sea level displacing fresh groundwater for a substantial distance inland.

(a). Global Warming :

Increase of greenhouse gases concentration causes a reduction in outgoing infrared radiation, thus the Earth's climate must change somehow to restore the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation. This “climatic change” will include a “global warming” of the Earth's surface and the lower atmosphere as warming up is the simplest way for the climate to get rid of the extra energy. However, a small rise in temperature will induce many other changes, for example, cloud cover and wind patterns. Some of these changes may act to enhance the warming (positive feedbacks), others to counteract it (negative feedbacks). Using complex climate models, the "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" in their third assessment report has forecast that global mean surface temperature will rise by 1.4℃ to 5.8℃ by the end of 2100. This projection takes into account the effects of aerosols which tend to cool the climate as well as the delaying effects of the oceans which have a large thermal capacity. However, there are many uncertainties associated with this projection such as future emission rates of greenhouse gases, climate feedbacks, and the size of the ocean delay.

(b).Sea Level Rise :

If global warming takes place, sea level will rise due to two different processes. Firstly, warmer temperature cause sea level to rise due to the thermal expansion of seawater. Secondly, water from melting glaciers and the ice sheets of Greenland and the Antarctica would also add water to the ocean. It is predicted that the Earth's average sea level will rise by 0.09 to 0.88 m between 1990 and 2100.

(c) Agricultural Impact:

Experiments have shown that with higher concentrations of CO2, plants can grow bigger and faster. However, the effect of global warming may affect the atmospheric general circulation and thus altering the global precipitation pattern as well as changing the soil moisture contents over various continents. Since it is unclear how global warming will affect climate on a regional or local scale, the probable effects on the biosphere remains uncertain.

(d) Effects on Aquatic systems:

The loss of coastal wetlands could certainly reduce fish populations, especially shellfish. Increased salinity in estuaries could reduce the abundance of freshwater species but could increase the presence of marine species. However, the full impact on marine species is not known.

(e) Effects on Hydrological Cycle:

Global precipitation is likely to increase. However, it is not known how regional rainfall patterns will change. Some regions may have more rainfall, while others may have less. Furthermore, higher temperatures would probably increase evaporation. These changes would probably create new stresses for many water management systems.

3.Political impact :

The researchers compared emissions and costs in more than 500 scenarios, and revealed that the timing of global action will have the greatest effect on whether the world meets a given climate target, such as keeping global temperature rise to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. The second most important factor was scientific uncertainties, followed by social and technological ones.

In December 2011, leaders from 195 countries pledged that by 2015 they would set targets for reducing emissions starting in 2020; if they stick to that course, Hatfield-Dodds calculates, there will be a 56% chance of keeping the temperature increase below 2 °C. However, delaying action until 2025 would decrease that chance to 34%. Bringing the curbs forward to 2015, by contrast, would improve the odds to 60%, all else being equal. It would also make action much cheaper. To achieve a 60% chance of success would cost US$60 per tonne of carbon dioxide (or equivalent amounts of other greenhouse gases) if action began in 2015, compared with $150 per tonne for action starting in 2020.

Action to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions has been slow, especially at the international level, says Richard Howarth, an environmental economist at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. The latest study “shows that deferring action may lead to very significant economic costs”, he says, adding that “early action is our best bet”.