In: Statistics and Probability
Year |
quarter |
Occupancy |
2013 |
1 |
16 |
2 |
21 |
|
3 |
9 |
|
4 |
18 |
|
2014 |
1 |
15 |
2 |
20 |
|
3 |
10 |
|
4 |
18 |
|
2015 |
1 |
17 |
2 |
24 |
|
3 |
13 |
|
4 |
22 |
|
2016 |
1 |
17 |
2 |
25 |
|
3 |
11 |
|
4 |
21 |
|
2017 |
1 |
18 |
2 |
26 |
|
3 |
14 |
|
4 |
25 |
A.
In this graph, we see that there is an increasing trend in this data..and there is seasonality in the data.. The Occupancy rate drops every 3rd quarter and then gradually increases and peaks in 2nd quarter.
B.
Occupancy | ||||||||
Year | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Average | Seasonal Index | |
Quarter | Q1-13 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 16.6 | 0.922 |
Q2-13 | 21 | 20 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 23.2 | 1.289 | |
Q3-13 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 11.4 | 0.633 | |
Q4-13 | 18 | 18 | 22 | 21 | 25 | 20.8 | 1.156 | |
Average | 16 | 15.75 | 19 | 18.5 | 20.75 | 18 |
Seasonal Index is calculated by dividing each Quarter Average by the Grand average of the entire data( which is 18 in this case)
So, For Q1, Seasonal Index, SI = 16.6/18 = 0.922
For Q2, Seasonal Index, SI = 23.2/18 = 1.289
For Q3, Seasonal Index, SI = 11.4/18 = 0.633
For Q4, Seasonal Index, SI = 20.8/18 = 1.156
This shows us that Q3 has the lowest Occupancy. It becomes better gradually and maxes in Q2
C.
Average Occupancy in 2013 = 16
Average Occupancy in 2014 = 15.8
Average Occupancy in 2015 = 19
Average Occupancy in 2016 = 18.5
Average Occupancy in 2017 = 20.8
Since it is an increasing trend, we can take CAGR to forecast occupancy in 2018.
CAGR = (Occupancy in 2017 / Occupancy in 2013)(1/4) - 1 = (20.8/16)(1/4) - 1 = 5.8%
Now, Average Occupancy in 2018 will be 5.8% more than 2017, which will be equal to 20.8*(1+5.8%) = 22.0066
Now Forecast for each quarter is given by,
For Q1, Occupancy = Average Occupancy * Seasonal Index = 22.0066*0.922 = 20.295
For Q2, Occupancy = 22.0066*1.289 = 28.364
For Q3, Occupancy = 22.0066*0.633= 13.9375
For Q4, Occupancy = 22.0066*1.156 = 25.429