Question

In: Statistics and Probability

Find the MAD for the 3-month and the 12-month moving average forecast. Year   Month   Rate(%) 2009  ...

Find the MAD for the 3-month and the 12-month moving average forecast.

Year   Month   Rate(%)
2009   Jan   7.9
2009   Feb   8.5
2009   Mar   8.7
2009   Apr   9.1
2009   May   9.4
2009   Jun   9.4
2009   Jul   9.7
2009   Aug   9.5
2009   Sep   9.9
2009   Oct   9.9
2009   Nov   9.9
2009   Dec   9.7
2010   Jan   9.7
2010   Feb   9.6
2010   Mar   9.8
2010   Apr   9.7
2010   May   9.5
2010   Jun   9.4
2010   Jul   9.4
2010   Aug   9.4
2010   Sep   9.4
2010   Oct   9.6
2010   Nov   9.7
2010   Dec   9.4
2011   Jan   9.2
2011   Feb   8.9
2011   Mar   8.7
2011   Apr   9.1
2011   May   8.9
2011   Jun   9.2
2011   Jul   8.8
2011   Aug   9.1
2011   Sep   9.1
2011   Oct   8.8
2011   Nov   8.5
2011   Dec   8.4
2012   Jan   8.3
2012   Feb   8.3
2012   Mar   8.3
2012   Apr   8.2
2012   May   8.1
2012   Jun   8.1
2012   Jul   8.3
2012   Aug   8.3
2012   Sep   7.9
2012   Oct   7.9
2012   Nov   7.6
2012   Dec   7.7

Solutions

Expert Solution

pl?☺️


Related Solutions

Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average.
Consider the following data:Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11Demand 7 9 5 9 13 8 12 13 9 11 7Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average.(a): What is the predicted value for the next period (Year 12)?(b): What is the MAD value for this forecast? Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year weighted moving average with weights of...
Table 6-3. Calculation of MAD Time Period      Actual Sales      3 Month Moving Average          Absolute Deviation     
Table 6-3. Calculation of MAD Time Period      Actual Sales      3 Month Moving Average          Absolute Deviation        Weighted Moving Average W=.1,.3,.6         Absolute Deviation        Exponential Smoothing Ft = 350 Absolute Deviation 1          230                                                      350       2          238                                                      326       3          260                                                      308       4          275      243                  250                  299       5          300      258                  267                  294       6          285      278                  289                  295       7          270      287                  289                  293       8          290      285                  278                  289       9          305      282                  284                  289       10        320      288                  297                  292       11        335      305                  313                  298       12                    320                  328                  305       SUM =                           n =                                                                                MAD    73) Refer to Table 6-3. Calculate MAD for all forecasting models. The model you would use for your forecast, based on MAD is _____________________________________. Please show work.  
a. Show the naive forecast, an exponential smoothing forecasts using α = 0.2, and a 3-month moving average forecast.
Month137244335450534630750829936103511411245a.  Show the naive forecast, an exponential smoothing forecasts using α = 0.2, and a 3-month moving average forecast.b. Compare the MFE, MSE, and MAPE on the modelsc.  Make a conclusion on which model to use.d. Find the alpha (smoothing constant) that minimizes the MSE.
For the attached data set, 1. create a 3-month and 6-month moving average forecast. 2. Calculate...
For the attached data set, 1. create a 3-month and 6-month moving average forecast. 2. Calculate the standard errors 3. compare their forecast accuracy Month/Year Unemployment rate Jan-17 5.1 Feb-17 4.9 Mar-17 4.6 Apr-17 4.1 May-17 4.1 Jun-17 4.5 Jul-17 4.6 Aug-17 4.5 Sep-17 4.1 Oct-17 3.9 Nov-17 3.9 Dec-17 3.9 Jan-18 4.5 Feb-18 4.4 Mar-18 4.1 Apr-18 3.7 May-18 3.6 Jun-18 4.2 Jul-18 4.1 Aug-18 3.9 Sep-18 3.6 Oct-18 3.5 Nov-18 3.5
Develop a three-period moving average forecast for April 2019 through January 2020. Calculate the MFE, MAD,...
Develop a three-period moving average forecast for April 2019 through January 2020. Calculate the MFE, MAD, and MAPE values for April through December 2019. LOADING... Click the icon to view the time series data. Develop a three-period moving average and fill-in the table below (enter your responses rounded to one decimal place). Month Demand Forecast January 2019 123123 February 7474 March 114114 April 7777 103.66103.66 May 9898 88.3388.33 June 136136 96.3396.33 July 103103 103.66103.66 August 106106 112.33112.33 September 100100 103103...
(a) Develop a five month average forecast. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 13.
Consider the following time series data Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Value 90 89 86 91 90 91 88 86 91 93 90 88   (a) Develop a five month average forecast. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 13. (b) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 13. ( c) Compare the result for the five month...
Given the attached data. Answer the following questions for a 6 period moving average. MAD =...
Given the attached data. Answer the following questions for a 6 period moving average. MAD = Average(|A-F|) TS =SUM(A-F)/MAD MSE = Average(A-F)2 1. Compute your forecast for period 51. The potential answers are: A: 4414 units. B: 10290.67 units. C: 8020.83 units. D: 6324.8 units. E: 6351.86 units. 2. Compute the MAD value for period 50. The potential answers are: A: 2655.35 units. B: 3753.86 units. C: 3892.54 units. D: 3732.56 units. E: 3205.7 units. 3. Compute standard deviation of...
1.at is the root mean square error (RMSE) for a "next period forecast" using 3-month moving...
1.at is the root mean square error (RMSE) for a "next period forecast" using 3-month moving average model for these three years of demand? Give your answer as an integer. 2.at is the root mean square error (RMSE) for a "next period forecast" using naive model for these three years of demand? Give your answer as an integer 3.What is the root mean square error (RMSE) for a "next period forecast" using cumulative model for these three years of demand?...
develop a? three-period moving average forecast for april 2019
A geneticist discovers a new mutation in Drosophila melanogaster that causes the flies to shake and quiver. She calls this mutation spastic (sps) and determines that it is due to an autosomal recessive gene. She wants to determine if the gene encoding spastic is linked to the recessive gene for vestigial wings (vg). She crosses a fly homozygous for spastic and vestigial traits with a fly homozygous for the wild-type traits and then uses the resulting F1 females in a...
Run a multiple regression with trend and seasonal; forecast the next 12 months.    year Month...
Run a multiple regression with trend and seasonal; forecast the next 12 months.    year Month Crates 1999 Jan 20400 Feb 13600 Mar 17000 Apr 30600 May 23800 Jun 17000 Jul 27200 Aug 30600 Sep 34000 Oct 45900 Nov 40800 Dec 30600 2000 Jan 13600 Feb 23800 Mar 30600 Apr 25500 May 27200 Jun 30600 Jul 23800 Aug 47600 Sep 37400 Oct 45900 Nov 44200 Dec 17000 2001 Jan 20400 Feb 13600 Mar 30600 Apr 22100 May 23800 Jun 30600...
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT