Question
In: Statistics and Probability
Table 6-3. Calculation of MAD Time Period Actual Sales 3 Month Moving Average Absolute Deviation
Table 6-3. Calculation of MAD
Time Period Actual Sales 3 Month Moving Average Absolute Deviation Weighted Moving Average
W=.1,.3,.6 Absolute Deviation Exponential Smoothing Ft = 350 Absolute Deviation
1 230 350
2 238 326
3 260 308
4 275 243 250 299
5 300 258 267 294
6 285 278 289 295
7 270 287 289 293
8 290 285 278 289
9 305 282 284 289
10 320 288 297 292
11 335 305 313 298
12 320 328 305
SUM =
n =
MAD
73) Refer to Table 6-3. Calculate MAD for all forecasting models. The model you would use for your forecast, based on MAD is _____________________________________.
Please show work.
Solutions
Expert Solution
MAD = 23.5
| Moving averages - 3 period moving average | |||||||
| Data | Forecasts and Error Analysis | ||||||
| Period | Demand | Forecast | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err | |
| Period 1 | 230 | ||||||
| Period 2 | 238 | ||||||
| Period 3 | 260 | ||||||
| Period 4 | 275 | 242.6667 | 32.33333 | 32.33333 | 1045.444 | 11.76% | |
| Period 5 | 300 | 257.6667 | 42.33333 | 42.33333 | 1792.111 | 14.11% | |
| Period 6 | 285 | 278.3333 | 6.666667 | 6.666667 | 44.44444 | 02.34% | |
| Period 7 | 270 | 286.6667 | -16.6667 | 16.66667 | 277.7778 | 06.17% | |
| Period 8 | 290 | 285 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 01.72% | |
| Period 9 | 305 | 281.6667 | 23.33333 | 23.33333 | 544.4444 | 07.65% | |
| Period 10 | 320 | 288.3333 | 31.66667 | 31.66667 | 1002.778 | 09.90% | |
| Period 11 | 335 | 305 | 30 | 30 | 900 | 08.96% | |
| Total | 154.6667 | 188 | 5632 | 62.61% | |||
| Average | 19.33333 | 23.5 | 704 | 07.83% | |||
| Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | ||||
| SE | 30.63767 | ||||||
| Next period | 320 |
| Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average | ||||||||
| Data | Forecasts and Error Analysis | |||||||
| Period | Demand | Weights | Forecast | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err | |
| Period 1 | 230 | 0.6 | 3 periods ago | |||||
| Period 2 | 238 | 0.3 | 2 periods ago | |||||
| Period 3 | 260 | 0.1 | 1 periods ago | |||||
| Period 4 | 275 | 235.4 | 39.6 | 39.6 | 1568.16 | 14.40% | ||
| Period 5 | 300 | 248.3 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 2672.89 | 17.23% | ||
| Period 6 | 285 | 268.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 272.25 | 05.79% | ||
| Period 7 | 270 | 283.5 | -13.5 | 13.5 | 182.25 | 05.00% | ||
| Period 8 | 290 | 292.5 | -2.5 | 2.5 | 6.25 | 00.86% | ||
| Period 9 | 305 | 281 | 24 | 24 | 576 | 07.87% | ||
| Period 10 | 320 | 279.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 1640.25 | 12.66% | ||
| Period 11 | 335 | 297.5 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 1406.25 | 11.19% | ||
| Total | 193.8 | 225.8 | 8324.3 | 75.00% | ||||
| Average | 24.225 | 28.225 | 1040.538 | 09.38% | ||||
| Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||||
| SE | 37.2476 | |||||||
| Next period | 312.5 |
 orchestra answered 1 year agoRelated SolutionsGiven the attached data. Answer the following questions for a 6 period moving average. MAD =...Given the attached data. Answer the following questions for a 6
period moving average.
MAD = Average(|A-F|)
TS =SUM(A-F)/MAD
MSE = Average(A-F)2
1. Compute your forecast for period 51.
The potential answers are:
A: 4414 units.
B: 10290.67 units.
C: 8020.83 units.
D: 6324.8 units.
E: 6351.86 units.
2. Compute the MAD value for period 50.
The potential answers are:
A: 2655.35 units.
B: 3753.86 units.
C: 3892.54 units.
D: 3732.56 units.
E: 3205.7 units.
3. Compute standard deviation of...
Find the MAD for the 3-month and the 12-month moving average forecast. Year Month Rate(%) 2009 ...Find the MAD for the 3-month and the 12-month moving average
forecast.
Year Month Rate(%)
2009 Jan 7.9
2009 Feb 8.5
2009 Mar 8.7
2009 Apr 9.1
2009 May 9.4
2009 Jun 9.4
2009 Jul 9.7
2009 Aug 9.5
2009 Sep 9.9
2009 Oct 9.9
2009 Nov 9.9
2009 Dec 9.7
2010 Jan 9.7
2010 Feb 9.6
2010 Mar 9.8
2010 Apr 9.7
2010 May 9.5
2010 Jun 9.4
2010 Jul 9.4
2010 Aug 9.4
2010 Sep 9.4
2010 Oct ...
1. Evaluate the forecasting model using 3 month moving average, and 3 month moving weighted average,...1. Evaluate the forecasting model using 3 month moving
average, and 3 month moving weighted average, and exponential. The
weights are .5 for the most recent demand, .25 for the other
months. Alpha = .3. Use the weighted moving average for January
Forecast.
Actual Demand
Oct
300
Nov
360
Dec
425
Jan
405
Feb
430
March
505
April
550
May
490
2. Calculate MAD and MAPE for each and compare. Which
method is a better forecast and why?
Use Simple Linear Regression (excel) on the table below. What is the MAD? Period Month Demand...Use Simple Linear Regression (excel) on the table below. What is
the MAD?
Period
Month
Demand
37
January
7077
38
February
7050
39
March
5430
40
April
5475
41
May
5504
42
June
6246
43
July
6361
44
August
6358
45
September
6379
46
October
6430
47
November
6720
48
December
7107
Develop a three-period moving average forecast for April 2019 through January 2020. Calculate the MFE, MAD,...Develop a three-period moving average forecast for April 2019
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April through December 2019. LOADING... Click the icon to view the
time series data. Develop a three-period moving average and fill-in
the table below (enter your responses rounded to one decimal
place). Month Demand Forecast January 2019 123123 February 7474
March 114114 April 7777 103.66103.66 May 9898 88.3388.33 June
136136 96.3396.33 July 103103 103.66103.66 August 106106
112.33112.33 September 100100 103103...
For the attached data set, 1. create a 3-month and 6-month moving average forecast. 2. Calculate...
For the attached data set,
1. create a 3-month and 6-month moving average forecast.
2. Calculate the standard errors
3. compare their forecast accuracy
Month/Year
Unemployment rate
Jan-17
5.1
Feb-17
4.9
Mar-17
4.6
Apr-17
4.1
May-17
4.1
Jun-17
4.5
Jul-17
4.6
Aug-17
4.5
Sep-17
4.1
Oct-17
3.9
Nov-17
3.9
Dec-17
3.9
Jan-18
4.5
Feb-18
4.4
Mar-18
4.1
Apr-18
3.7
May-18
3.6
Jun-18
4.2
Jul-18
4.1
Aug-18
3.9
Sep-18
3.6
Oct-18
3.5
Nov-18
3.5
Requirements: Moving Averages. Use the below actual sales to calculate a one-year average which will be...Requirements:
Moving Averages. Use the below actual sales to calculate a
one-year average which will be used as the forecast for next
periods (chapter 14, text). Choose a moving average period that
best supports this calculation.
Exponential Smoothing. Use the same data to forecast sales for
the next periods with α=.40 (chapter 14, text).
Regression Analysis on Excel. Draw a scatter graph from
Insert/Graph/Scatter graph selections in Excel (chapter 15,
text).
Month Actual Sales
1 3050
2 2980
3 3670...
Requirements: Moving Averages. Use the below actual sales to calculate a one-year average which will be...Requirements:
Moving Averages. Use the below actual sales to calculate a
one-year average which will be used as the forecast for next
periods (chapter 14, text). Choose a moving average period that
best supports this calculation.
Exponential Smoothing. Use the same data to forecast sales for
the next periods with α=.40 (chapter 14, text).
Regression Analysis on Excel. Draw a scatter graph from
Insert/Graph/Scatter graph selections in Excel (chapter 15,
text).
Month Actual Sales
1 3050
2 2980
3 3670...
Moving Averages. Use the below actual sales to calculate a three-year average which will be used as...
Moving Averages. Use the below
actual sales to calculate a three-year average
which will be used as the forecast for next periods (chapter 14,
text).
Exponential Smoothing. Use the same data to
forecast sales for the next periods with α=.40 (chapter 14,
text).
Regression Analysis on Excel. Draw a scatter
graph from Insert/Graph/Scatter graph selections in Excel (chapter
15, text).
Month
Actual Sales
1
3050
2
2980
3
3670
4
2910
5
3340
6
4060
7
4750
8
5510
9
5280...
The following quotations are given for the spot rate and the 1-month, 3-moth ad 6-month absolute...The following quotations are given for the spot rate and the
1-month, 3-moth ad 6-month absolute swap rates involving the US$
and the Euro (€):
Spot rate
1.0904 Bid ($/€)
1.0910 Ask ($/€)
1-month absolute swap
0.0219 Bid ($/€)
0.0224 Ask ($/€)
3-month absolute swap
0.0463 Bid ($/€)
0.0472 Ask ($/€)
6-motnh absolute swap
0.0578 Bid ($/€)
0.0587 Ask ($/€)
Calculate forward quotes for the US $ dollar as: a) outright
forward quotes, and b) annual percentage premium or discount....
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