Question

In: Statistics and Probability

For the attached data set, 1. create a 3-month and 6-month moving average forecast. 2. Calculate...

For the attached data set,

1. create a 3-month and 6-month moving average forecast.

2. Calculate the standard errors

3. compare their forecast accuracy

Month/Year Unemployment rate
Jan-17 5.1
Feb-17 4.9
Mar-17 4.6
Apr-17 4.1
May-17 4.1
Jun-17 4.5
Jul-17 4.6
Aug-17 4.5
Sep-17 4.1
Oct-17 3.9
Nov-17 3.9
Dec-17 3.9
Jan-18 4.5
Feb-18 4.4
Mar-18 4.1
Apr-18 3.7
May-18 3.6
Jun-18 4.2
Jul-18 4.1
Aug-18 3.9
Sep-18 3.6
Oct-18 3.5
Nov-18 3.5

Solutions

Expert Solution

I had done this using MINITAB as follows-

Stat- Time series -moving average . This gives output as follows-

From above standard error for 3 - month Moving Average is 0.16 and 6 - month moving average is 0.08902.

Forecast for 6 month moving average is accurate. Because it's standard error is minimum.


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