Question

1. Assume that a simulation model of an industrial process has just been completed.

1. A sample of output from the process and the simulation model appears below:

Observation	History	Simulation
1	111	109
2	113	106
3	76	126
4	83	98
5	104	96

                       

Is there evidence to believe that the simulation adequately represents the real system with relation to this particular metric? Why or why not? State any assumptions you make.

2. Later, the simulation is run under three different operating scenarios and the results appear below:

Observation	Scenario A	Scenario B	Scenario C
1	96	104	141
2	109	87	169
3	102	122	77
4	97	85	87
5	92	115	94
Sum	496	513	568	1577
Mean	99	103	114	105
St.Dev	6.53	16.47	39.53	24.01

Is there any statistical evidence that the scenarios influence the output metric?

3. Which, of any, of the scenarios is best, assuming that bigger is better for the particular output metric of interest?

Answer 1