Question

The dean of Mihaylo Business School is forecasting total student enrollment for next year based on the following historical data:

Year Total Enrollment

2015 1600

2016 2000

2017 2200

2018 2600

2019 3000

What is 2020's forecast using a 2-period moving average? Select one:

a. 2,800

b. None of the choices

c. 3,000

d. 1,960

e. 2,450

What is the MAPE value based on 2 year moving average?
Select one:

a. None of the choice
b. 0.191
c. 0.178
d. 0.144
e. 0.237

What is the forecasted value of 2020 by using a 3 year weighted moving average by using weights of 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1.
Select one:
a. 2480
b. 2800
c. 2680
d. None of the choices
e. 2400
a. None of the choice
b. 0.191
c. 0.178
d. 0.144
e. 0.237

What is the MSE value based on exponential smoothing forecast with smoothing constant of 0.4?
Select one:
a. 1,557,436
b. None of the choices
c. 576
d. 1,297,863
e. 357,985

Compare 2 year moving average and exponential smoothing with alpha=0.4, which forecasting approach is better? Using MAE as your forecast accuracy measure.
Select one:
a. Exponential smoothing with alpha=0.4
b. 2 year moving average

Answer 1

1) 2020's forecast using a 2-period moving average is 2800

2) the mean average percentage error is MAPE=19.14%.=0.191

3)

The forecasted value of 2020 by using a 3 year weighted moving average by using weights of 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 is 2800.

the mean square error is MSE=286387.71

Using MAE as your forecast accuracy measure. The mean average deviation is MAD = 500 for 2 year MA and The mean average deviation is MAD = 460.48. for exponential smoothing

Since MAD FOR EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING IS SMALL THEREFORE

a. Exponential smoothing with alpha=0.4