Question

In: Statistics and Probability

A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The...

A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows:


Activity
Activity Time
(weeks)

Probability
A 5 0.32
6 0.39
7 0.27
8 0.02
B 4 0.18
6 0.51
8 0.31
C 7 0.10
9 0.29
11 0.43
13 0.15
15 0.03
D 10 0.61
12 0.39
  1. Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.
    Activity Base case Worst case Best case
    A weeks weeks weeks
    B weeks weeks weeks
    C weeks weeks weeks
    D weeks weeks weeks
    Total weeks weeks weeks
  2. Use the random numbers 0.3487, 0.4561, 0.3031 and 0.9067 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.
    Activity Random Number Completion Time
    A 0.3487 weeks
    B 0.4561 weeks
    C 0.3031 weeks
    D 0.9067 weeks
    Total weeks
  3. Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability that the project can be completed in weeks or less.

    Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The ___ of times weeks and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed within weeks.

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