In: Statistics and Probability
For any controlled scientific study, a scientist
starts with an observation, does some research to develop a
hypothesis, and then designs an experiment that compares some
baseline group with a test group. Data are then collected to
confirm or refute the hypothesis.
As you review the following study, consider whether
the researchers correctly followed the scientific method.
In the late 1990s, gastroenterologist Andrew
Wakefield, along with a research team, set out to
determine whether bowel disease caused by vaccines led to
autism.
He compiled a group of 12 children who had loss of
acquired skills, developmental delays in language, diarrhea, and
abdominal pain—essentially, those with both bowel disease and
autism. He questioned each parent about the behavior and
personality of the child before the child was vaccinated with the
Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) vaccine. He then ran tests on the
children to determine the health of the gastrointestinal tract,
brain, and nervous system.
His reported data (tabulated below) included that
children experienced either gastrointestinal or autism-like
symptoms, sometimes within a short period after being vaccinated.
From these data, the researchers concluded that there was no link
between autism and the MMR vaccine. Wakefield though, contradicted
this conclusion and stated that the vaccine caused changes in the
gastrointestinal tract of the children, which then led to autism
(Wakefield, et al., 1998). Currently, he still contends that the
MMR vaccine contributes to autism (Ziv, 2015).
Many researchers tried to duplicate this study and
could not replicate Wakefield’s results. In fact, they found no
link between the vaccines, bowel disease, and autism. In the United
Kingdom, the MMR vaccine was not introduced until 1988. If
Wakefield’s conclusions were correct, one would then expect a jump
in autism cases after 1988, but this was not observed, even when
hundreds of children were studied (Taylor et al., 1999). In these
additional studies, children who had not been vaccinated were
included as a control group, and no difference in the rates of
autism was observed.
In 2011, Brian Deer reviewed Wakefield’s study and all
available records from the National Health Service (NHS) in the
United Kingdom for these 12 children. He found that at most, two
children showed symptoms days after vaccinations. At least five
children showed developmental delays before being vaccinated. Six
out of the 12 children may have had autism symptoms. None of the 12
children tested had all three—regressive autism, colitis, and
symptoms days after vaccination.
Wakefield’s statements led to a worldwide panic about
the safety of vaccines, but after Deer’s report, Wakefield’s study
was retracted and his medical license was revoked for falsifying
data.
Recommended: Click on the following links
to review materials to enhance your knowledge of biological
molecules and the scientific method and to support your analysis of
Wakefield’s experiment:
Steps of the Scientific Method: A simplified
explanation of how the scientific method works, and the steps taken
to investigate phenomena with diagrams
Do Vaccines Cause Autism?: A review of research
demonstrating that vaccines and their components are not the cause
of autism
Fifteen years after a vaccine scare, a measles
epidemic: An analysis of vaccination trends and an increase in
measles cases seen in the UK
Answer the following questions:
What was wrong with Wakefield’s study? Discuss at least 2 variables or approaches that should have been controlled or assessed.
Consider the source of some of his data (parental
memory, for example), the small sample size, and whether he
considered other variables (genetics, diet, and so on) that could
have resulted in symptoms in these children.
Discuss the importance of a control group when using
the scientific method.
Did Wakefield deserve to be barred from medical
practice?
What were the consequences of his overblown
conclusions?
Follow these guidelines for your paper:
Utilize at least 1 credible source to support the
arguments presented in the paper. Make sure you cite appropriately
within your paper, and list the reference(s) in APA format on your
Reference page.
Your paper should be 1–2 pages in length, not counting
the Title page and Reference page. In accordance with APA
formatting requirements, it should be double-spaced and include a
running head and page numbers
Answer :
1. The paper authored by Andrew Wakefield and 12 others, in 1998, was a small case series with no controls, linked three common conditions, and relied on parental recall and beliefs. Over the following decade, epidemiological studies consistently found no evidence of a link between the MMR vaccine and autism.
The 2 variables which should have been controlled were sample size and a contol group.
2. The importance of a control group is to compare the abnormal condition with the normal condition. Always a control group which is considered as normal for the study criteria is a must to find variations in the abnormal group and to find the extent of the variation.
3. Yes, publishing a wrong idea and scaring a wide community of parents and doctors with false data is a deviation from genuine and legal scintific approach. Before starting and publishing a scientific study, an intact knowledge on how the study should be carried out is to be discussed in detail through the previous studies and if possible with the experts (mentor) and coauthors related and should make sure that all the necessary steps are taken for the same.
4. The scare against the MMR vaccination led the parents to oppose vaccination to their children. Despite the small sample size (n=12), the uncontrolled design, and the speculative nature of the conclusions, the paper received wide publicity, and MMR vaccination rates began to drop because parents were concerned about the risk of autism after vaccination. Reports says that in Germany, of the 71 children infected with mumps, 68 had not been immunised. In 2008, for the first time in 14 years, measles was declared endemic in England and Wales. Hundreds of thousands of children in the UK are currently unprotected as a result of the scare, and the battle to restore parents’ trust in the vaccine is ongoing.
A new report released in the British Medical Journal, titled “Secrets of the MMR scare: How the case against the MMR vaccine was fixed,” has revealed that the original Wakefield study was not only conducted “dishonestly” and “irresponsibly,” as stated in the retraction in February 2010, but that the data are “bogus.”