Question

(Please note that the subject of this (political science) was not listed, so I had to choose Economics

Doing research on Russia and NATO relations and whether Russia is currently a threat to NATO, and especially the United States? Also, did their war games (Zapad) last year deliver any threats and are we at risk to go to war? If you think so, please explain why you came to that conclusion. Thank you.

Answer 1

Russia and NATO relations

Let us try to understand how much threat do Russia's emerging 5th-generation stealth fighter, nuclear arsenal, high-tech air defenses, anti-satellite weapons, conventional army and submarines pose to NATO and the U.S.

Russia’s military drills and Crimean seizure definitely puts a lot of doubt of its intentions of Russia. Russia' attitude in response to NATO portrays that it can counter-balance or deter the alliance. However, there are still questions whether Russia’s current military can pose a real threat to NATO in a prolonged, all-out military engagement but Russia continues to make military advances even though there are economic pressures in Russian economy.

With 3,000 aircraft, 973 helicopters, 15-thousand tanks, 27,000 armoured fighting vehicles and nearly 6,000 self-propelled guns for artillery and development of "Terminator 3" tank support fighting vehicle, Russia looks like in a mode of preparation that can pose any kind of threat to NATO. The direct military challenge from Russia, and confirmation of Russia's willingness to use military force against its neighbours with few exceptions should be translated into European countries taking a serious interest in defending themselves. NATO's defence and research budget dwarfs Russia's, as does the base capacity of the alliance to generate forces and equip them in a prolonged conflict.

A Rand study revealed that NATO force structure in Eastern Europe in recent years will not be able to withstand a Russian invasion into neighbouring Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. The absence of short-range air defences in the U.S. units, and the minimal defences in the other NATO units, meant that many of these attacks encountered resistance only from NATO combat air patrols, which were overwhelmed by sheer numbers. The result was heavy losses to several Blue (NATO) battalions and the disruption of the counterattack. For quite some time, NATO and the US have been considering adding more troops to the Eastern flank as a way to further deter Russia.

Ukraine was a warning bell and Russia's newfound assertiveness should not be confused with a desire to launch a military attack westwards.

The immediate Russian threat may come from its information warfare and cyber campaigns directed against the West. That's a battle that has already been joined. And it is one the West is equally ill-prepared for.

Zapad-2017

Zapad-2017 as it is known is the latest iteration of a series of training manoeuvres that began under the Soviet Union in the 1970s. Last year in September, President Vladimir Putin watched as Russian tanks, fighter jets, missiles and paratroopers battled fictional extremist groups, in an area just 70 miles from his country’s border with the European Union.

It was done at a time where one can see the relation between Russia and the West detoriating. Some Western officials including the head of the U.S. Army in Europe, Gen. Ben Hodges, have raised concerns that Russia might use the drills as a “Trojan horse” to make incursions into Poland and Russian-speaking regions in the Baltics. Though, the Kremlin firmly rejects any such plan as Russia stated that 13,000 troops from Russia and Belarus will be involved in the Sept. 14-20 drills which is below an international threshold that requires large numbers of outside observers. However, because of the past bitter experiences that Western officials had over Russian election meddling and military adventurism there is a deep distrust in Kremlin’s motives and its proclamations of good intentions. Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014 and its intervention in Syria’s war in 2015, NATO doesn't have trust in Kremlin’s public message.

It posed a threat that Moscow may send more troops into Belarus than it intends to withdraw, establishing a permanent military presence there on the border with NATO countries. Even the officials in the Baltics and Poland have raised an alarm that the exercises could be used as a cover for Russian aggression, as happened in Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014, when Moscow staged large-scale exercises to camouflage preparations for its annexation of Crimea and intervention on the side of pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine.  

Threats appear more dangerous as there is a lack of transparency which increases the risk of misunderstanding, miscalculations and incidents that can become dangerous. West expects Russia to honour Vienna Document as United States does when they involve in any kind of war games.

The biggest threat is for the Baltic States and Poland, which fear that the fictional nations invented by Zapad planners are thinly disguised proxies for their own countries, they believe that the number of Russian troops taking part in Zapad-2017 could reach 100,000.

Are we at a risk of war? If the messages from the Kremlin are to be believed these are nothing but just drills but given the past scenario, Russia is wrong footed.

NATO officials say they have been watching Russia’s preparations for months and as a precaution, the U.S. Army has moved 600 paratroopers to the Baltics during Zapad and has taken over guardianship of the airspace of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which lack capable air forces and air defence systems. The drills however simulate a conflict with the U.S.-led alliance intended to show Russia’s ability to mass large numbers of troops at very short notice in the event of a conflict.

With these drills, one things is very clear that Moscow intends to send a message loud and clear to leaders in the West, a demonstration of its modernized forces and a warning not to venture too close.