In: Operations Management
.
. The table below shows the sales of SCORE Detergent from the past two years.
YEAR | QUARTERS | ACTUAL |
2019 | Q1 | 300 |
Q2 | 540 | |
Q3 | 885 | |
Q4 | 580 | |
2020 | Q1 | 416 |
Q2 | 760 | |
Q3 | 1191 | |
Q4 | 760 |
Required: A. Use the seasonality method to predict the forecast for
all the four quarters of 2021.
Answer: Q1 - 521, Q2 -945, Q3 -1509, Q4-974
Step 1:
Calculate the Seasonal Factor
Seasonal Factor For Q1 (S1) = Total of Q1 Demand / Total Demand = 716/5432 =0.131811
S2 = 1300/5432 = 0.239323
S3 = 2076/5432 = 0.38218
S4 = 1340/5432 = 0.246686
Step 2: Demand Forecast for the Year 2021
Compute trend line using a regression for the year of the data in the table
For x =3 (year 2021)
y = 1483 +822 (3) = 3949
Step 3: Compute Seasonal Demand
By Multiplying Forecasted demand of the Year 2021 with seasonal Factor, we can predict Demand for quarters:
Q1 = 0.131811 * 3949 = 521
Q2 = 0.239323 * 3949 = 945
Q3 = 0.38218 * 3949 = 1509
Q4 = 0.246686 * 3949 = 974