Question

In: Operations Management

. . The table below shows the sales of SCORE Detergent from the past two years....

.

. The table below shows the sales of SCORE Detergent from the past two years.

YEAR QUARTERS ACTUAL
2019 Q1 300
Q2 540
Q3 885
Q4 580
2020 Q1 416
Q2 760
Q3 1191
Q4 760


Required: A. Use the seasonality method to predict the forecast for all the four quarters of 2021.

Solutions

Expert Solution

Answer: Q1 - 521, Q2 -945, Q3 -1509, Q4-974

Step 1:

Calculate the Seasonal Factor

Seasonal Factor For Q1 (S1) = Total of Q1 Demand / Total Demand = 716/5432 =0.131811

S2 = 1300/5432 = 0.239323

S3 = 2076/5432 = 0.38218

S4 = 1340/5432 = 0.246686

Step 2: Demand Forecast for the Year 2021

Compute trend line using a regression for the year of the data in the table

For x =3 (year 2021)

y = 1483 +822 (3) = 3949

Step 3: Compute Seasonal Demand

By Multiplying Forecasted demand of the Year 2021 with seasonal Factor, we can predict Demand for quarters:

Q1 = 0.131811 * 3949 = 521

Q2 = 0.239323 * 3949 = 945

Q3 = 0.38218 * 3949 = 1509

Q4 = 0.246686 * 3949 = 974


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