Question

In: Operations Management

What is the forecast and MSE using Additive Seasonal Forecasting? 2019 is the holdout sample. Shipments...

What is the forecast and MSE using Additive Seasonal Forecasting? 2019 is the holdout sample.

Shipments Fasteners
Jan-17 335798
Feb-17 297853
Mar-17 318399
Apr-17 311730
May-17 363876
Jun-17 296832
Jul-17 297513
Aug-17 321144
Sep-17 317677
Oct-17 325487
Nov-17 272937
Dec-17 276282
Jan-18 335439
Feb-18 310514
Mar-18 407754
Apr-18 356169
May-18 345322
Jun-18 331997
Jul-18 343059
Aug-18 350277
Sep-18 265205
Oct-18 389332
Nov-18 310474
Dec-18 308429
Jan-19 385807
Feb-19 332529
Mar-19 407606
Apr-19 361946
May-19 453432
Jun-19 412892
Jul-19 447359
Aug-19 363769
Sep-19 361232
Oct-19 451421
Nov-19 363724
Dec-19 331619

Solutions

Expert Solution

Forecast using additive seasonal method:

Shipments Fasteners Sum of 4s Sum of 2 4s Forecasted trend of fasteners Ts - T
17-Jan 335798 335798
17-Feb 297853 297853
17-Mar 318399 1263780 2555638 319454.75 -1055.75
17-Apr 311730 1291858 2582695 322836.875 -11106.9
17-May 363876 1290837 2560788 320098.5 43777.5
17-Jun 296832 1269951 2549316 318664.5 -21832.5
17-Jul 297513 1279365 2512531 314066.375 -16553.4
17-Aug 321144 1233166 2494987 311873.375 9270.625
17-Sep 317677 1261821 2499066 312383.25 5293.75
17-Oct 325487 1237245 2429628 303703.5 21783.5
17-Nov 272937 1192383 2402528 300316 -27379
17-Dec 276282 1210145 2405317 300664.625 -24382.6
18-Jan 335439 1195172 2525161 315645.125 19793.88
18-Feb 310514 1329989 2739865 342483.125 -31969.1
18-Mar 407754 1409876 2829635 353704.375 54049.63
18-Apr 356169 1419759 2861001 357625.125 -1456.13
18-May 345322 1441242 2817789 352223.625 -6901.63
18-Jun 331997 1376547 2747202 343400.25 -11403.3
18-Jul 343059 1370655 2661193 332649.125 10409.88
18-Aug 350277 1290538 2638411 329801.375 20475.63
18-Sep 265205 1347873 2663161 332895.125 -67690.1
18-Oct 389332 1315288 2588728 323591 65741
18-Nov 310474 1273440 323797.8125 -13323.8
19-Dec 308429 324004.625
20-Jan 324211.4375
20-Feb 324418.25
20-Mar 324625.0625
20-Apr 324831.875
20-May 325038.6875
20-Jun 325245.5
20-Jul 325452.3125
20-Aug 325659.125
20-Sep 325865.9375
20-Oct 326072.75
20-Nov 326279.5625
20-Dec 326486.375
Trend
Last 323591
First 319454.8
Change 4136.25
Avg. change 206.8125

keosha answered 1 week ago
Next > < Previous

Related Solutions

What is the MSE, MAPE, and CFE using additive seasonal forecasting? hipments Fasteners Forecasted trend of...
What is the MSE, MAPE, and CFE using additive seasonal forecasting? hipments Fasteners Forecasted trend of fasteners 17-Jan 335798 335798 17-Feb 297853 297853 17-Mar 318399 319454.75 17-Apr 311730 322836.875 17-May 363876 320098.5 17-Jun 296832 318664.5 17-Jul 297513 314066.375 17-Aug 321144 311873.375 17-Sep 317677 312383.25 17-Oct 325487 303703.5 17-Nov 272937 300316 17-Dec 276282 300664.625 18-Jan 335439 315645.125 18-Feb 310514 342483.125 18-Mar 407754 353704.375 18-Apr 356169 357625.125 18-May 345322 352223.625 18-Jun 331997 343400.25 18-Jul 343059 332649.125 18-Aug 350277 329801.375 18-Sep 265205 332895.125...
What is the forecast and MSE using regression? 2019 is the holdout sample and "car sales"...
What is the forecast and MSE using regression? 2019 is the holdout sample and "car sales" is the independent variable. Shipments Car Sales Fasteners Jan-17 17680000 335798 Feb-17 17650000 297853 Mar-17 17130000 318399 Apr-17 17230000 311730 May-17 17200000 363876 Jun-17 17200000 296832 Jul-17 17180000 297513 Aug-17 17020000 321144 Sep-17 18380000 317677 Oct-17 18200000 325487 Nov-17 17860000 272937 Dec-17 17700000 276282 Jan-18 17550000 335439 Feb-18 17560000 310514 Mar-18 17690000 407754 Apr-18 17770000 356169 May-18 17780000 345322 Jun-18 17700000 331997 Jul-18 17380000...
Two different forecasting techniques, Linear Regression and Trend-Seasonal, were used to forecast demand for cases of...
Two different forecasting techniques, Linear Regression and Trend-Seasonal, were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are as follows. Predicted Demand Period Sales Regression Linear regression Trend-Seasonal 1 282 200 290 2 255 210 230 3 262 220 270 4 290 230 210 5 230 240 250 A) Compute the MAD and Bias for each technique. B) Construct a sentence to describe what the MAD and Bias tell the average...
Forecast the advertising revenue for each quarter in 2011 using seasonal dummy variables and a best...
Forecast the advertising revenue for each quarter in 2011 using seasonal dummy variables and a best subsets regression.​ (Let the first dummy variable be equal to 1 for Quarter 2 and so​ on, following the order of the seasonal categories in the given​ table. 2008 1 540 2 516 3 488 4 500 2009 quarter Rev. in Millions 1 433 2 407 3 402 4 460 2010 quarters rev. in millions 1 347 2 297 3 292 4 332 A)...
(a) Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24 13 21 13 20 24 16 (a) Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. If required, round your answer to one decimal place. What is the forecast for month 8? If required, round your answer to one decimal place. Do not round intermediate calculation. (b) Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the...
Forecasting Cash Flow and Burn Rate Create a Cash Flow Forecast on Excel using the following...
Forecasting Cash Flow and Burn Rate Create a Cash Flow Forecast on Excel using the following assumptions: Forecast duration: Years 0 through 5, then Exit Unit Sales: Sell 2000 units your first year and increase 30% per year Price: $100/unit first year and increase 5% per year COGS: Calculate based on a 75% Gross Profit Margin NOTE: to complete the Operating Expense section, break it into two lines: Payroll and Other Payroll: Start with 2 employees in year 0 paid...
Suppose that you are using the? four-period weighted moving average forecasting method to forecast sales and...
Suppose that you are using the? four-period weighted moving average forecasting method to forecast sales and you know that sales will be decreasing every period for the foreseeable future. What of the following would be the best set of weights to use? (listed in order from the most recent period to four periods? ago, respectively)? A.0.00, 0.00,? 0.00, 1.00 B.?0.25, 0.25,? 0.25, 0.25 C.?1.00, 0.00,? 0.00, 0.00 D.0.10, 0.20,? 0.30, 0.40 E. ?0.40, 0.30,? 0.20, 0.10
Suppose that you are using the? four-period weighted moving average forecasting method to forecast sales and...
Suppose that you are using the? four-period weighted moving average forecasting method to forecast sales and you know that sales will be decreasing every period for the foreseeable future. What of the following would be the best set of weights to use? (listed in order from the most recent period to four periods? ago, respectively)? A.0.00, 0.00,? 0.00, 1.00 B.?0.25, 0.25,? 0.25, 0.25 C.?1.00, 0.00,? 0.00, 0.00 D.0.10, 0.20,? 0.30, 0.40 E. ?0.40, 0.30,? 0.20, 0.10
Describe the various forecasting methods. What are the steps needed to develop a forecast? Explain how...
Describe the various forecasting methods. What are the steps needed to develop a forecast? Explain how you could use Excel to help develop a forecast. Provide an example of an Excel forecast for a three year period on any one income statement or balance sheet account.
Use the Naïve Method of forecasting, prepare tables and calculate forecast accuracy measures. What is the forecast for month 11? Prepare the Time Series Plots.
Consider the following time series data.   Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Value 12 19 24 13 20 23 15 21 23 18   Use the Naïve Method of forecasting, prepare tables and calculate forecast accuracy measures. What is the forecast for month 11? Prepare the Time Series Plots. Use the “Historical Average Forecasting Method” that calculates “Forecast for a month” as “the average of all the observed data right from the beginning up...
ADVERTISEMENT
Subjects
ADVERTISEMENT
Latest Questions
ADVERTISEMENT