Question

In: Operations Management

What is the forecast and MSE using Additive Seasonal Forecasting? 2019 is the holdout sample. Shipments...

What is the forecast and MSE using Additive Seasonal Forecasting? 2019 is the holdout sample.

Shipments Fasteners
Jan-17 335798
Feb-17 297853
Mar-17 318399
Apr-17 311730
May-17 363876
Jun-17 296832
Jul-17 297513
Aug-17 321144
Sep-17 317677
Oct-17 325487
Nov-17 272937
Dec-17 276282
Jan-18 335439
Feb-18 310514
Mar-18 407754
Apr-18 356169
May-18 345322
Jun-18 331997
Jul-18 343059
Aug-18 350277
Sep-18 265205
Oct-18 389332
Nov-18 310474
Dec-18 308429
Jan-19 385807
Feb-19 332529
Mar-19 407606
Apr-19 361946
May-19 453432
Jun-19 412892
Jul-19 447359
Aug-19 363769
Sep-19 361232
Oct-19 451421
Nov-19 363724
Dec-19 331619

Solutions

Expert Solution

Forecast using additive seasonal method:

Shipments Fasteners Sum of 4s Sum of 2 4s Forecasted trend of fasteners Ts - T
17-Jan 335798 335798
17-Feb 297853 297853
17-Mar 318399 1263780 2555638 319454.75 -1055.75
17-Apr 311730 1291858 2582695 322836.875 -11106.9
17-May 363876 1290837 2560788 320098.5 43777.5
17-Jun 296832 1269951 2549316 318664.5 -21832.5
17-Jul 297513 1279365 2512531 314066.375 -16553.4
17-Aug 321144 1233166 2494987 311873.375 9270.625
17-Sep 317677 1261821 2499066 312383.25 5293.75
17-Oct 325487 1237245 2429628 303703.5 21783.5
17-Nov 272937 1192383 2402528 300316 -27379
17-Dec 276282 1210145 2405317 300664.625 -24382.6
18-Jan 335439 1195172 2525161 315645.125 19793.88
18-Feb 310514 1329989 2739865 342483.125 -31969.1
18-Mar 407754 1409876 2829635 353704.375 54049.63
18-Apr 356169 1419759 2861001 357625.125 -1456.13
18-May 345322 1441242 2817789 352223.625 -6901.63
18-Jun 331997 1376547 2747202 343400.25 -11403.3
18-Jul 343059 1370655 2661193 332649.125 10409.88
18-Aug 350277 1290538 2638411 329801.375 20475.63
18-Sep 265205 1347873 2663161 332895.125 -67690.1
18-Oct 389332 1315288 2588728 323591 65741
18-Nov 310474 1273440 323797.8125 -13323.8
19-Dec 308429 324004.625
20-Jan 324211.4375
20-Feb 324418.25
20-Mar 324625.0625
20-Apr 324831.875
20-May 325038.6875
20-Jun 325245.5
20-Jul 325452.3125
20-Aug 325659.125
20-Sep 325865.9375
20-Oct 326072.75
20-Nov 326279.5625
20-Dec 326486.375
Trend
Last 323591
First 319454.8
Change 4136.25
Avg. change 206.8125

keosha answered 4 months ago
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