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In: Statistics and Probability

What is the forecast and MSE using regression? 2019 is the holdout sample and "car sales"...

What is the forecast and MSE using regression? 2019 is the holdout sample and "car sales" is the independent variable.

Shipments Car Sales Fasteners
Jan-17 17680000 335798
Feb-17 17650000 297853
Mar-17 17130000 318399
Apr-17 17230000 311730
May-17 17200000 363876
Jun-17 17200000 296832
Jul-17 17180000 297513
Aug-17 17020000 321144
Sep-17 18380000 317677
Oct-17 18200000 325487
Nov-17 17860000 272937
Dec-17 17700000 276282
Jan-18 17550000 335439
Feb-18 17560000 310514
Mar-18 17690000 407754
Apr-18 17770000 356169
May-18 17780000 345322
Jun-18 17700000 331997
Jul-18 17380000 343059
Aug-18 17360000 350277
Sep-18 17840000 265205
Oct-18 18000000 389332
Nov-18 17880000 310474
Dec-18 17890000 308429
Jan-19 17240000 385807
Feb-19 17030000 332529
Mar-19 17770000 407606
Apr-19 17050000 361946
May-19 17930000 453432
Jun-19 17710000 412892
Jul-19 17440000 447359
Aug-19 17510000 363769
Sep-19 17720000 361232
Oct-19 17050000 451421
Nov-19 17450000 363724
Dec-19 17160000 331619

Solutions

Expert Solution

Holdout data is a data which doesnot include in actual data to find regression

Fasteners = Dependent

Car Sales = Independent

Excel > Data > Data Analysis > Regression

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.010917236
R Square 0.000119186
Adjusted R Square -0.045329942
Standard Error 35060.75612
Observations 24
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 3223609.046 3223609.046 0.002622405 0.959620764
Residual 22 27043645639 1229256620
Total 23 27046869248
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 305683.6791 368727.7498 0.829022712 0.415996031 -459010.8707 1070378.229 -459010.8707 1070378.229
Car Sales(X) 0.001071567 0.020925192 0.051209426 0.959620764 -0.042324625 0.044467759 -0.042324625 0.044467759

Fasteners(Y) = 305683.6791 + 0.0011 * Car Sales(X)

MSE = 1229256620

orchestra answered 1 year ago
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