What is the MSE, MAPE, and CFE using additive seasonal forecasting? hipments Fasteners Forecasted trend of...

What is the MSE, MAPE, and CFE using additive seasonal forecasting?

hipments	Fasteners	Forecasted trend of fasteners
17-Jan	335798	335798
17-Feb	297853	297853
17-Mar	318399	319454.75
17-Apr	311730	322836.875
17-May	363876	320098.5
17-Jun	296832	318664.5
17-Jul	297513	314066.375
17-Aug	321144	311873.375
17-Sep	317677	312383.25
17-Oct	325487	303703.5
17-Nov	272937	300316
17-Dec	276282	300664.625
18-Jan	335439	315645.125
18-Feb	310514	342483.125
18-Mar	407754	353704.375
18-Apr	356169	357625.125
18-May	345322	352223.625
18-Jun	331997	343400.25
18-Jul	343059	332649.125
18-Aug	350277	329801.375
18-Sep	265205	332895.125
18-Oct	389332	323591
18-Nov	310474	323797.8125
18-Dec	308429

Expert Solution

Answer:

Formulas used is as under:

Shipments	Fasteners	Forecasted trend of fasteners
	Demand	Forecast	Error	Running Sales Forecast Error (RSFE) or CFE (Cumulative Forecast Error)	Absolute Error	Errors2	Absolute % Error
	At	Ft	et = At-Ft	CFE (Sum of all Error)	\|et\|	\|et\|2	\|At-Ft\|/At

At is Demand

Ft is Forecast

et = At-Ft is Error or Bias

|et| is Absolute Error

|et|2 is Square of Absolute Error

MSE = Average of |et|2

MAPE = Average of |At-Ft|/At

CFE = Cumulative Forecast Error = RSFE Running Sales Forecast Error = Sum of all Error

Data of 18-Dec is not considered in calculation as only the value of “Fastners” is mentioned and not its “Forecasted trend of fasteners”

Based in the formulas, following is the calculation:

keosha answered 1 year ago

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