Question

A public health department is evaluating the possible causes for a vaccine shortage during a major flu outbreak. The probability of a flu outbreak is estimated to be 10%. The department uses two suppliers, Vendor A and Vendor B. The following is their analysis of the leading causes for a shortage:

• Each vendor has a 5% chance they could run short of vaccine, since they must supply health departments in other regions during the outbreak.
• Even if vendors could supply enough vaccine, there is a 10% chance that shipping of the vaccine could be disrupted due to pandemonium during the outbreak.

• Given the above information, construct a fault-tree with the top event being a flu vaccine shortage (use only AND and OR gates).

• Estimate the probability of a flu vaccine shortage.

Answer 1

• Given the above information, construct a fault-tree with the top event being a flu vaccine shortage (use only AND and OR gates).

Answer:

• Estimate the probability of a flu vaccine shortage.

Answer:

Probability of shortage for Vendor A= 0.05+0.10-(0.05*0.10)

                                                           = 0.145

Probability of shortage for Vendor B= 0.05+0.10-(0.05*0.10)

                                                           = 0.145

Probability of Vaccine Shortage = P(Vendor A) * P(Vendor B)

                                                            =0.145 * 0.145

                                                            =0.021 or 2.1%

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