In: Statistics and Probability
Use the International Stock Market database from “Excel Databases.xls” on Blackboard. Use Excel to develop a multiple regression model to predict the DJIA by the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, the Nikkei, the Hang Seng, the FTSE 100, and the IPC. Performing a stepwise regression analysis at a 5% level of significance, which independent variable is the best single predictor of the DJIA? This is Step 1 of the stepwise regression.
Nasdaq |
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S&P 500 |
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Nikkei |
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Hang Seng |
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FTSE 100 |
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IPC |
https://drive.google.com/file/d/19TI3HId0greXS0nkmDuoITv1IMPF_TUK/view?usp=sharing
Need help tonight please.
Answer:
performing linear regression on the US International Stock Market database.
step 1) Performing a stepwise regression analysis at a 5% level of significance, which independent variable is the best single predictor of the DJIA.
step 2)
Excel Result Summary:
SUMMARY OUTPUT | ||||||||
Regression Statistics | ||||||||
Multiple R | 0.989049 | |||||||
R Square | 0.978217 | |||||||
Adjusted R Square | 0.975883 | |||||||
Standard Error | 218.0548 | |||||||
Observations | 63 | |||||||
ANOVA | ||||||||
df | SS | MS | F | Significance F | ||||
Regression | 6 | 119575403.5 | 19929234 | 419.1401675 | 1.22232E-44 | |||
Residual | 56 | 2662682.286 | 47547.9 | |||||
Total | 62 | 122238085.8 | ||||||
Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | P-value | Lower 95% | Upper 95% | Lower 95.0% | Upper 95.0% | |
Intercept | 1412.33 | 381.6344136 | 3.70074 | 0.000492201 | 647.8242553 | 2176.835449 | 647.8242553 | 2176.835449 |
NASDAQ | -1.25896 | 0.633491091 | -1.98734 | 0.051784186 | -2.527995529 | 0.010074767 | -2.527995529 | 0.010074767 |
S&P 500 | 10.79855 | 1.633371114 | 6.611204 | 1.51594E-08 | 7.526514683 | 14.07058573 | 7.526514683 | 14.07058573 |
NIKKEI 225 | -8.83781 | 4.188979299 | -2.10978 | 0.039359655 | -17.22934126 | -0.446273459 | -17.22934126 | -0.446273459 |
HANG SENG | 0.489284 | 0.166200981 | 2.943928 | 0.004710529 | 0.156343096 | 0.822224243 | 0.156343096 | 0.822224243 |
FTSE 100 | -0.1283 | 0.10733882 | -1.19531 | 0.237002923 | -0.343328787 | 0.086722203 | -0.343328787 | 0.086722203 |
IPC | 0.170992 | 0.110333521 | 1.54977 | 0.126830134 | -0.050032986 | 0.392016216 | -0.050032986 | 0.392016216 |
step 3)
conclusion:
here we decide which variable is the best or significant using t stat, the large value of t stat ( modulus of t) decide which independent variable is best for DJIA.
In the above summary of linear regression, the S&P 500 is the best independent variable for DJIA