Question

In: Statistics and Probability

Use the International Stock Market database from “Excel Databases.xls” on Blackboard. Use Excel to develop a...

Use the International Stock Market database from “Excel Databases.xls” on Blackboard. Use Excel to develop a multiple regression model to predict the DJIA by the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, the Nikkei, the Hang Seng, the FTSE 100, and the IPC. Performing a stepwise regression analysis at a 5% level of significance, which independent variable is the best single predictor of the DJIA? This is Step 1 of the stepwise regression.

Nasdaq

S&P 500

Nikkei

Hang Seng

FTSE 100

IPC

https://drive.google.com/file/d/19TI3HId0greXS0nkmDuoITv1IMPF_TUK/view?usp=sharing

Need help tonight please.

Solutions

Expert Solution

Answer:

performing linear regression on the US International Stock Market database.

step 1) Performing a stepwise regression analysis at a 5% level of significance, which independent variable is the best single predictor of the DJIA.

step 2)

Excel Result Summary:

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.989049
R Square 0.978217
Adjusted R Square 0.975883
Standard Error 218.0548
Observations 63
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 119575403.5 19929234 419.1401675 1.22232E-44
Residual 56 2662682.286 47547.9
Total 62 122238085.8
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 1412.33 381.6344136 3.70074 0.000492201 647.8242553 2176.835449 647.8242553 2176.835449
NASDAQ -1.25896 0.633491091 -1.98734 0.051784186 -2.527995529 0.010074767 -2.527995529 0.010074767
S&P 500 10.79855 1.633371114 6.611204 1.51594E-08 7.526514683 14.07058573 7.526514683 14.07058573
NIKKEI 225 -8.83781 4.188979299 -2.10978 0.039359655 -17.22934126 -0.446273459 -17.22934126 -0.446273459
HANG SENG 0.489284 0.166200981 2.943928 0.004710529 0.156343096 0.822224243 0.156343096 0.822224243
FTSE 100 -0.1283 0.10733882 -1.19531 0.237002923 -0.343328787 0.086722203 -0.343328787 0.086722203
IPC 0.170992 0.110333521 1.54977 0.126830134 -0.050032986 0.392016216 -0.050032986 0.392016216

step 3)

conclusion:

here we decide which variable is the best or significant using t stat, the large value of t stat ( modulus of t) decide which independent variable is best for DJIA.

In the above summary of linear regression, the S&P 500 is the best independent variable for DJIA


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