Question
In: Statistics and Probability
Year No. Year Students Enrolled in QM Exponentially Smoothed Forecast (α = .30) 1 2014 –...
|
Year No. |
|
|
|
|
1 |
2014 – 2015 |
439 |
|
|
2 |
2015 – 2016 |
444 |
|
|
3 |
2016 – 2017 |
462 |
|
|
4 |
2017 – 2018 |
467 |
|
|
5 |
2018 – 2019 |
What is the Exponentially Smoothed Forecast for year 5?
|
Year No. |
|
|
|
Trend |
Adjusted |
|
1 |
2014 – 2015 |
439 |
- |
||
|
2 |
2015 – 2016 |
444 |
439 |
||
|
3 |
2016 – 2017 |
462 |
441 |
||
|
4 |
2017 – 2018 |
467 |
449.4 |
||
|
5 |
2018 – 2019 |
456.44 |
What is the trend for year 2?
What is the trend for year 3?
What is the adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast for year 3?
What is the trend for year 4?
What is the adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast for year 4?
What is the forecast for year 5 using linear regression.
Solutions
Expert Solution
What is the Exponentially Smoothed Forecast for year 5?
452.97
| Alpha | 0.3 | ||||||
| Data | Forecasts and Error Analysis | ||||||
| Period | Demand | Forecast | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err | |
| Period 1 | 439 | 439 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 00.00% | |
| Period 2 | 444 | 439 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 01.13% | |
| Period 3 | 462 | 440.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 462.25 | 04.65% | |
| Period 4 | 467 | 446.95 | 20.05 | 20.05 | 402.0025 | 0.0429336 | |
| Total | 46.55 | 46.55 | 889.2525 | 10.07% | |||
| Average | 11.6375 | 11.6375 | 222.3131 | 02.52% | |||
| Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | ||||
| SE | 21.08616 | ||||||
| Next period | 452.965 |
What is the trend for year 2?
447.9
What is the trend for year 3?
458.1
What is the adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast for year 3?
441
What is the trend for year 4?
468.3
What is the adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast for year 4?
449.4
What is the forecast for year 5 using linear regression.
478.5
| Data | Forecasts and Error Analysis | |||||||
| Period | Demand (y) | Period(x) | Forecast | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err | |
| Period 1 | 439 | 1 | 437.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.69 | 00.30% | |
| Period 2 | 444 | 2 | 447.9 | -3.9 | 3.9 | 15.21 | 00.88% | |
| Period 3 | 462 | 3 | 458.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 15.21 | 00.84% | |
| Period 4 | 467 | 4 | 468.3 | -1.3 | 1.3 | 1.69 | 00.28% | |
| Total | 0 | 10.4 | 33.8 | 02.30% | ||||
| Intercept | 427.5 | Average | 0 | 2.6 | 8.45 | 00.57% | ||
| Slope | 10.2 | Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||
| SE | 4.110961 | |||||||
| Forecast | 478.5 | 5 | ||||||
| Correlation | 0.969015 | |||||||
| Coefficient of determination | 0.938989 |
| Alpha | 0.4 | ||||||||
| Beta | 0.2 | ||||||||
| Data | Forecasts and Error Analysis | ||||||||
| Period | Demand | Smoothed Forecast, Ft | Smoothed Trend, Tt | Forecast Including Trend, FITt | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err | |
| Period 1 | 439 | 439 | 439 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 00.00% | ||
| Period 2 | 444 | 439 | 0 | 439 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 01.13% | |
| Period 3 | 462 | 441 | 21 | 21 | 441 | 04.55% | |||
| Period 4 | 467 | 449.4 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 309.76 | 0.037687 | |||
| Total | 43.6 | 43.6 | 775.76 | 09.44% | |||||
| Average | 10.9 | 10.9 | 193.94 | 02.36% | |||||
| Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | ||||||
| SE | 19.69467 |
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