Question
In: Finance
Using exponential smoothing with α of 0.1 and the given forecast for year 1
As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Transplants | 46.0 | 48.0 | 55.0 | 57.0 | 57.0 |
The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 42.0 surgeries
a) Using exponential smoothing with α of 0.1 and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal place):
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | 42.0 |
For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with α = 0.90 and the given forecast for year 1. MAD = _______ surgeries (round your response to one decimal place)
b) Forecasts for years 4 through 6 using a 3-year moving average are (round your responses to one decimal place):
| Year | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast |
For forecasts made using a 3-year moving average, MAD = _______ surgeries (round your response to one decimal place)
Solutions
jeff jeffy answered 2 years agoRelated Solutions
a. Show the naive forecast, an exponential smoothing forecasts using α = 0.2, and a 3-month moving average forecast.
Month137244335450534630750829936103511411245a. Show the naive forecast, an exponential smoothing
forecasts using α = 0.2, and a 3-month moving average forecast.b. Compare the MFE, MSE, and MAPE on the modelsc. Make a conclusion on which model to use.d. Find the alpha (smoothing constant) that minimizes the
MSE.
Use the information below to produce the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast assuming Alpha=0.1.
Use the information below to produce the Simple Exponential
Smoothing forecast assuming Alpha=0.1. Enter period 4's forecasted
value below. The initialization value for period 1 is given as the
actual value for period 1. Round your answer to two decimal places
(e.g., 1.23).Alpha=0.1PeriodXSES19.29.228.338.14?
Question: Use the first-order exponential smoothing model with α = 0.2 to forecast for these data...
Question: Use the first-order exponential smoothing model with
α = 0.2 to forecast for these data and for the
first six months of the third year. Compute MSD/E,
MAD, MAPE, and Bias.
Month
(t)
Demand
A(t)
1
148
2
125
3
78
4
53
5
25
6
29
7
9
8
68
9
84
10
110
11
147
12
120
13
147
14
109
15
96
16
70
17
42
18
36
19
34
20
28
21
71
22
102...
Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with a = 0.3 and α =.5 to develop...
Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with a = 0.3
and α =.5 to develop a demand forecasts for period
7. Assume that the forecast for week 1= 19. Use the Mean
Absolute Percent Error to determine which forecasts are more
accurate.
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
Demand
17
19
15
19
13
18
What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if last year's smoothed forecast was 2600?
The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data:Four years ago 2000There years ago 2200Two years ago 2800Last year 3000What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if last year's smoothed forecast was 2600?A. 2,600B. 2,760C. 2,800D. 3,840E. 3,000
Use an exponential smoothing method with a starting forecast of 21 for month 1 and a...
Use an exponential smoothing method with a starting forecast of
21 for month 1 and a smoothing constant α = 0.5 to calculate
month-in-advance forecasts for months 4–12 and forecast for the
first month of next year. Calculate the MAD.
What is the formula for a two step ahead exponential smoothing forecast?
What is the formula for a two step ahead exponential smoothing
forecast?
Determine the seventh projection of the following process variable data: Using Exponential Smoothing (α= 2/n+1) Actual...
Determine the seventh projection of the following process
variable data:
Using Exponential Smoothing (α= 2/n+1)
Actual Results 100 123 140 110 150 105
a) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series.
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
11
13
10
14
12
a) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series.
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
18
2
11
?
3
13
?
4
10
?
5
14
?
6
12
?
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal
places.)
MSE =
What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to
two...
a) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series.
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
11
13
10
14
12
a) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series.
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
18
2
11
?
3
13
?
4
10
?
5
14
?
6
12
?
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal
places.)
MSE =
What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to
two...
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