In: Statistics and Probability
The Oman National Grid Company ventures to a new project in the southern part of the Sultanate which is a 250-kilometer, 132 kilovolts transmission lines. The company has to choose between an Overhead transmission system and Underground transmission system. Table Q2 shows the initial investment for each type, the expected revenues during its lifetime which includes the cost savings incurred by underground transmission system over the overhead transmission system. The company has estimated a salvage value for each type of transmission to be 5% of the initial investment. As a company policy the minimum attractive rate of return MARR is 8% per year. Determine which of the two alternatives is acceptable to the company using the following methods; (i) Simple payback period; [7] (ii) Benefit cost ratio; [6] (ii) Net present value NPV; [6] (iii) Internal rate of return IRR
Items | Overhead | Underground Transmission |
Transmission | System | |
System | ||
Initial Investment | 9,993 | 11,722 |
(million OMR) | ||
Annual revenue + cost savings | 980 | 1238 |
(million OMR) | ||
Annual Operating & Maintenance O&M Cost/Depreciation/ | 256 | 181 |
taxes | ||
(million OMR) | ||
Life expectancy, n | 40 | 30 |
(years) |
Method | Preferred System |
Payback Method | Underground Transmission |
Cost-Benefit Ratio | Overhead System |
NPV | Overhead System |
IRR | Underground Transmission |
(1)Simple Payback Period:
Solution - Choose Underground Transmission
Explanation:
Items | Overhead System | Underground Transmission |
Initial Investment (C) | -9,993 | -11,722 |
Annual revenue + cost savings | 980 | 1238 |
Annual Operating & Maintenance O&M Cost/Depreciation/taxes | -256 | -181 |
Net Cash Inflow/year (A) | 724 | 1057 |
Life expectancy, n years | 40 | 30 |
Salvage Value (S) | 499.65 | 586.1 |
Items | Overhead System | Underground Transmission | ||
Cash Outlays | Cumulative | Cash Outlays | Cumulative | |
Initial Investment (Year 0) | -9,993 | -9,993 | -11,722 | -11,722 |
Year 1 | 724 | -9,269 | 1057 | -10,665 |
Year 2 | 724 | -8,545 | 1057 | -9,608 |
Year 3 | 724 | -7,821 | 1057 | -8,551 |
Year 4 | 724 | -7,097 | 1057 | -7,494 |
Year 5 | 724 | -6,373 | 1057 | -6,437 |
Year 6 | 724 | -5,649 | 1057 | -5,380 |
Year 7 | 724 | -4,925 | 1057 | -4,323 |
Year 8 | 724 | -4,201 | 1057 | -3,266 |
Year 9 | 724 | -3,477 | 1057 | -2,209 |
Year 10 | 724 | -2,753 | 1057 | -1,152 |
Year 11 | 724 | -2,029 | 1057 | -95 |
Year 12 | 724 | -1,305 | 1057 | 962 |
Year 13 | 724 | -581 | 1057 | 2,019 |
Year 14 | 724 | 143 | 1057 | 3,076 |
Payback Period | 13.80 | 10.91 |
Based on the payback period we have to choose the project with less payback period:
So we have to choose the Underground Transmission
2. Benefit-Cost Ratio
Solution - Choose Overhead System
Explanation:
Based on Benefit-Cost Ratio we have to choose the project with higher Benefit-Cost Ratio
PV of an Annuity = A x [ (1 – (1+i)-n) / i ]
PV including the Salvage Value is given by A x [ (1 – (1+i)-n) / i ] + S/(1+r)n
Cost-Benefit Ratio = (A x [ (1 – (1+i)-n) / i ] + S/(1+r)n )/C
C = initial investment (outflows)
Here C = Annual net cash flows (inflows)
Here n = useful life in years
r= interest rate = 0.08 or 8%
S = Salvage value
Substituting the values in the above formula we get
Benefit-Cost Ratio for Overhead System is 1.26
Benefit-Cost Ratio for Underground Transmission is 1.02
So we have to choose Choose Overhead System
3. NPV Method
Solution - Choose Overhead System
Explanation:
Based on the NPV method we have to choose the project with higher NPV
PV of an Annuity = A x [ (1 – (1+i)-n) / i ]
PV including the Salvage Value is given by A x [ (1 – (1+i)-n) / i ] + S/(1+r)n
Now NPV = A x [ (1 – (1+i)-n) / i ] + S/(1+r)n - C
C = initial investment (outflows)
Here C = Annual net cash flows (inflows)
Here n = useful life in years
r= interest rate = 0.08 or 8%
S = Salvage value
Substituting the values in the above formula we get
NPV for Overhead System is 2634
NPV for Underground Transmission is 236
So we have to choose the Overhead System
4. IRR Method
Solution - Choose Underground Transmission
Explanation:
Based on the IRR method we have to choose the project with higher IRR value
The internal rate of return can be defined as that rate which equates the present value of cash inflows with the present value of cash outflows of an investment.
It can be determined by solving the following equation:
C= A1/(1+r) + A2 /(1+r)2 + A3 /(1+r)2 +…….+ An /(1+r)n- S /(1+r)n
Calculating using Excel we get
IRR for Overhead System is 6.74%
IRR for Underground Transmission is 8.21%
So we have to choose the Underground Transmission