Question

In: Statistics and Probability

The Oman National Grid Company ventures to a new project in the southern part of the...

The Oman National Grid Company ventures to a new project in the southern part of the Sultanate which is a 250-kilometer, 132 kilovolts transmission lines. The company has to choose between an Overhead transmission system and Underground transmission system. Table Q2 shows the initial investment for each type, the expected revenues during its lifetime which includes the cost savings incurred by underground transmission system over the overhead transmission system. The company has estimated a salvage value for each type of transmission to be 5% of the initial investment. As a company policy the minimum attractive rate of return MARR is 8% per year. Determine which of the two alternatives is acceptable to the company using the following methods; (i) Simple payback period; [7] (ii) Benefit cost ratio; [6] (ii) Net present value NPV; [6] (iii) Internal rate of return IRR

Items Overhead Underground Transmission
Transmission System
System
Initial Investment 9,993 11,722
(million OMR)
Annual revenue + cost savings 980 1238
(million OMR)
Annual Operating & Maintenance O&M Cost/Depreciation/ 256 181
taxes
(million OMR)
Life expectancy, n 40 30
(years)

Solutions

Expert Solution

Method Preferred System
Payback Method Underground Transmission
Cost-Benefit Ratio Overhead System
NPV Overhead System
IRR Underground Transmission

(1)Simple Payback Period:

Solution - Choose Underground Transmission

Explanation:

Items Overhead System Underground Transmission
Initial Investment (C) -9,993 -11,722
Annual revenue + cost savings 980 1238
Annual Operating & Maintenance O&M Cost/Depreciation/taxes -256 -181
Net Cash Inflow/year (A) 724 1057
Life expectancy, n years 40 30
Salvage Value (S) 499.65 586.1
Items Overhead System Underground Transmission
Cash Outlays Cumulative Cash Outlays Cumulative
Initial Investment (Year 0) -9,993 -9,993 -11,722 -11,722
Year 1 724 -9,269 1057 -10,665
Year 2 724 -8,545 1057 -9,608
Year 3 724 -7,821 1057 -8,551
Year 4 724 -7,097 1057 -7,494
Year 5 724 -6,373 1057 -6,437
Year 6 724 -5,649 1057 -5,380
Year 7 724 -4,925 1057 -4,323
Year 8 724 -4,201 1057 -3,266
Year 9 724 -3,477 1057 -2,209
Year 10 724 -2,753 1057 -1,152
Year 11 724 -2,029 1057 -95
Year 12 724 -1,305 1057 962
Year 13 724 -581 1057 2,019
Year 14 724 143 1057 3,076
Payback Period 13.80 10.91

Based on the payback period we have to choose the project with less payback period:

So we have to choose the Underground Transmission

2. Benefit-Cost Ratio

Solution - Choose Overhead System

Explanation:

Based on Benefit-Cost Ratio we have to choose the project with higher Benefit-Cost Ratio

PV of an Annuity = A x [ (1 – (1+i)-n) / i ]

PV including the Salvage Value is given by A x [ (1 – (1+i)-n) / i ] + S/(1+r)n  

Cost-Benefit Ratio = (A x [ (1 – (1+i)-n) / i ] + S/(1+r)n )/C

C = initial investment (outflows)

Here C = Annual net cash flows (inflows)

Here n = useful life in years

r= interest rate = 0.08 or 8%

S = Salvage value

Substituting the values in the above formula we get

Benefit-Cost Ratio for Overhead System is 1.26

Benefit-Cost Ratio for Underground Transmission is 1.02

So we have to choose Choose Overhead System

3. NPV Method

Solution - Choose Overhead System

Explanation:

Based on the NPV method we have to choose the project with higher NPV

PV of an Annuity = A x [ (1 – (1+i)-n) / i ]

PV including the Salvage Value is given by A x [ (1 – (1+i)-n) / i ] + S/(1+r)n  

Now NPV = A x [ (1 – (1+i)-n) / i ] + S/(1+r)n   - C

C = initial investment (outflows)

Here C = Annual net cash flows (inflows)

Here n = useful life in years

r= interest rate = 0.08 or 8%

S = Salvage value

Substituting the values in the above formula we get

NPV for Overhead System is 2634

NPV for Underground Transmission is 236

So we have to choose the Overhead System

4. IRR Method

Solution - Choose Underground Transmission

Explanation:

Based on the IRR method we have to choose the project with higher IRR value

The internal rate of return can be defined as that rate which equates the present value of cash inflows with the present value of cash outflows of an investment.

It can be determined by solving the following equation:

C= A1/(1+r) + A2 /(1+r)2 + A3 /(1+r)2 +…….+ An /(1+r)n- S /(1+r)n

Calculating using Excel we get

IRR for Overhead System is 6.74%

IRR for Underground Transmission is 8.21%

So we have to choose the Underground Transmission


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