Question
In: Statistics and Probability
U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands) Year Labor Force Year Labor Force 2007 153,918 2012 155,628 2008...
| U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands) | ||||
| Year | Labor Force | Year | Labor Force | |
| 2007 | 153,918 | 2012 | 155,628 | |
| 2008 | 154,655 | 2013 | 155,151 | |
| 2009 | 153,111 | 2014 | 156,238 | |
| 2010 | 153,650 | 2015 | 157,957 | |
| 2011 | 153,995 | 2016 | 159,640 | |
(c) Fit three trend models: linear, exponential, and quadratic. Which model would offer the most believable forecasts? (You may select more than one answer.)
- Linear
- Quadratic
- Exponential
(d) Make forecasts using the following fitted trend models
for years 2017-2019. (Round your answers to the nearest
whole number.)
| t | Linear | Quadratic | Exponential |
| 11 | |||
| 12 | |||
| 13 |
Solutions
Expert Solution
From the above three models, the linear and exponential have similar R-Sq values whereas the Quadratic model has the highest R-Sq with one and two more parameters from the linear and Quadratic models respectively. Here, the increase in R-Sq value in quadratic is enough from other models to say that the quadratic model is offer the most believable forecasts.
d)
| t | Linear | Quadratic | Exponential |
| 11 | 158607 | 161307 | 158648 |
| 12 | 159191 | 163362 | 159249 |
| 13 | 159775 | 165661 | 159851 |
orchestra answered 1 year agoRelated Solutions
U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands) Year Labor Force Year Labor Force 2007 168,954 2012 170,664 2008...
U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands)
Year
Labor Force
Year
Labor Force
2007
168,954
2012
170,664
2008
169,691
2013
170,187
2009
168,147
2014
171,274
2010
168,686
2015
172,993
2011
169,031
2016
174,676
Click here for the Excel Data File
(a) Make a line graph of the U.S. civilian labor
force data.
Line Graph A
Line Graph B
Line Graph C
Line Graph D
Line Graph 1
Line Graph 2
Line Graph 3
Line Graph 4
(b) Describe the trend (if any)...
U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands) Year Labor Force Year Labor Force 2007 178,978 2012 180,688 2008...
U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands)
Year
Labor Force
Year
Labor Force
2007
178,978
2012
180,688
2008
179,715
2013
180,211
2009
178,171
2014
181,298
2010
178,710
2015
183,017
2011
179,055
2016
184,700
Click here for the Excel Data File
(a) Make a line graph of the U.S. civilian labor
force data.
Line Graph A
Line Graph B
Line Graph C
Line Graph D
Line Graph 1
Line Graph 2
Line Graph 3
Line Graph 4
(b) Describe the trend (if any)...
U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands) Year Labor Force Year Labor Force 2007 153,918 2012 155,628 2008...
U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands)
Year
Labor Force
Year
Labor Force
2007
153,918
2012
155,628
2008
154,655
2013
155,151
2009
153,111
2014
156,238
2010
153,650
2015
157,957
2011
153,995
2016
159,640
(d) Make forecasts using the following fitted
trend models for years 2017-2019. (Round your answers to
the nearest whole number.)
t
Linear
Quadratic
Exponential
11
12
13
U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands) Year Labor Force Year Labor Force 2007 168,954 2012 170,664 2008...
U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands)
Year
Labor Force
Year
Labor Force
2007
168,954
2012
170,664
2008
169,691
2013
170,187
2009
168,147
2014
171,274
2010
168,686
2015
172,993
2011
169,031
2016
174,676
(d) Make forecasts using the following fitted
trend models for years 2017-2019. (Round your answers to
the nearest whole number.)
t
Linear
Quadratic
Exponential
11
12
13
U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands) Year Labor Force Year Labor Force 2007 189,002 2012 190,712 2008...
U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands)
Year
Labor Force
Year
Labor Force
2007
189,002
2012
190,712
2008
189,739
2013
190,235
2009
188,195
2014
191,322
2010
188,734
2015
193,041
2011
189,079
2016
194,724
Click here for the Excel Data File
(a) Make a line graph of the U.S. civilian labor
force data.
Line Graph A
Line Graph B
Line Graph C
Line Graph D
Line Graph 1
Line Graph 2
Line Graph 3
Line Graph 4
(b) Describe the trend (if any)...
Since 2008, the U.S. labor force participation rate for men has ________ and for women has...
Since 2008, the U.S. labor force participation rate for men
has ________ and for women has ________. A. gone up; gone up B.
gone down; gone up C. been flat; gone down D. been flat; been
flat E. gone down; gone down
Assume the total population of the US is 330 million, and the civilian labor force is...
Assume the total population of the US is 330 million, and the
civilian labor force is 165 million. In the past 6 weeks, new
claims for unemployment compensation totalled 30 million.
a) If that 30 million comprises all of the unemployed, what is
the current unemployment rate?
b) If the NRU is 5%, what is the rate of cyclical
unemployment?
c) According to Okun's Law, what percentage of potential GDP is
being foregone? What is the dollar value of foregone...
The credit or financial crisis 2007-2008 started in the U.S. Many people in the U.S. have...
The credit or financial crisis 2007-2008 started in the U.S.
Many people in the U.S. have got mortgages and later they couldn't
pay back. These mortgage defaults caused many mortgage lending
banks and companies to lose significantly and go bankrupt. As a
result the housing prices started to fall causing a negative wealth
effect and fall in consumer spending. The crisis was spread almost
all of the countries in the world later. Why and how other
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Year Dividend 2007 $ 0.02 2008 $ &nbs
Year
Dividend
2007
$
0.02
2008
$
0.03
2009
$
0.04
2010
$
0.05
2011
$
0.06
current
stock price
$10.00
Number of
stock shares
400,000
Debt/Equity ratio
0.75
Interest
Paid
240,000
tax
rate
36%
Part A. Estimate the constant annual compounding growth
rate based on the dividends 2007 through 2011.
Growth
rate
Part B. Use the Gordon dividend model to estimate the
cost of equity
Cost of
equity
B. Calculate the WACC
Cost of
debt
WACC
Unemployment Rate Civilian Labor
Unemployment
Rate
Civilian Labor Force Level
2008:
5.0
2008:
145
2009: 7.8
2009:
-445
2010: 9.8
2010:
373
2011: 9.1
2011:
-387
2012: 8.3
2012:
386
2013: 8.0
2013:
135
2014: 6.6
2014:
175
1) Make a graph with the dates along the horizontal axis and the
unemployment rate on the vertical axis. Plot the data from the
table on this graph. See if you can identify a peak, trough,
recession, and/or expansion in that data.
2) Notice that the...
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