Question

In: Statistics and Probability

U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands) Year Labor Force Year Labor Force 2007 153,918 2012 155,628 2008...

U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands)
Year Labor Force Year Labor Force
2007 153,918 2012 155,628
2008 154,655 2013 155,151
2009 153,111 2014 156,238
2010 153,650 2015 157,957
2011 153,995 2016 159,640

(c) Fit three trend models: linear, exponential, and quadratic. Which model would offer the most believable forecasts? (You may select more than one answer.)

  • Linear
  • Quadratic
  • Exponential



(d)
Make forecasts using the following fitted trend models for years 2017-2019. (Round your answers to the nearest whole number.)

t Linear Quadratic Exponential
11
12
13

Solutions

Expert Solution

From the above three models, the linear and exponential have similar R-Sq values whereas the Quadratic model has the highest R-Sq with one and two more parameters from the linear and Quadratic models respectively. Here, the increase in R-Sq value in quadratic is enough from other models to say that the quadratic model is offer the most believable forecasts.

d)

t Linear Quadratic Exponential
11 158607 161307 158648
12 159191 163362 159249
13 159775 165661 159851

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