Question

U.S. Civilian Labor Force (thousands)
Year	Labor Force		Year	Labor Force
2007	189,002		2012	190,712
2008	189,739		2013	190,235
2009	188,195		2014	191,322
2010	188,734		2015	193,041
2011	189,079		2016	194,724

Click here for the Excel Data File

(a) Make a line graph of the U.S. civilian labor force data.

Line Graph A	Line Graph B	Line Graph C	Line Graph D

• Line Graph 1

• Line Graph 2

• Line Graph 3

• Line Graph 4

(b) Describe the trend (if any) and discuss possible causes.

Trend is  (Click to select)  positive  negative  . There seems to be an  (Click to select)  increase  decrease  in the rate of growth over the past few years.

(d) Make forecasts using the following fitted trend models for years 2017-2019. (Round your answers to the nearest whole number.)

t	Linear	Quadratic	Exponential
11
12
13

Answer 1

Answer (a)

The Line gaph of US civilian labor force is given below drawn in excel spreadsheet . where on

x-axis - year from 2007 -2016

y-axis - labor froces at 2007 -2016

(b)

The graph looks like this below we can see the trend in which we can observe that there is slight ups and downs upto the year 2013 but after 2013 onwards there is only increase in the US civilian labor forces .Also upto the year 2013 there is no particular trend which is to be stated as there is high responsiveness in the US civilian labor forces but after that there is an increasing trend only which can be stated .

(d)

Using the model of linear we get the following chnages in the trend line as shown below and the equation of the fitted linear model is

labor force = 584.14 *(year) -984518

so the forecast value for year 2017 ,2018 and 2019 are respectively

labor force = 584.14 *(2017) -984518 =193692.4

labor force = 584.14 *(2018) -984518 =194276.5

labor force = 584.14 *(2019) -984518 = 194860.7

Using Quadratic Trend model we get the following graph and forecast

here we can see the equation in polynomial of degree 2 fitted in the model and the equation is

labor force = 122.45 ( year)^2 - 492050*(year) +5*10^8

so based on this we get the forecast for the year 2017,2018,2019 respectively as below

At 2017 ,

labor force = 122.45 ( 2017)^2 - 492050*(2017) +5*10^8 =5697138

At 2018

labor force = 122.45 ( 2018)^2 - 492050*(2018) +5*10^8 =5699173

At 2019

labor force = 122.45 ( 2019)^2 - 492050*(2019) +5*10^8 = 5701454

using the exponetial model  

Using exponential model  Trend model we get the following graph and forecast

here we can see the equation in exponetial form fitted in the model and the equation is

labor force = 408.9 *e^ (0.0031*(year))

so based on this we get the forecast for the year 2017,2018,2019 respectively as below

labor force = 408.9 *e^ (0.0031*(2017)) =212388.1185

labor force = 408.9 *e^ (0.0031*(2018))=213047.5432

labor force = 408.9 *e^ (0.0031*(2019))= 213709.0154

have a good day !