Instructions:
1. Get 4 coins, any country, any value, as long as it is
2-sided with heads on one side and tails on the other.
2. Without actually flipping the coins, write down what you
think would be the subjective probabilities of the following
sequences:
A. P(THHT) B. P(TTTT) C. P(THTT)
A subjective probability is a probability measurement based on
your opinion or judgment or historical facts or current events
without conducting an experiment or using any mathematical theories
for computing probability.
2. Perform an experiment of tossing the 4 coins 30 times,
recording the sequence of your 30 outcomes in a spreadsheet/table,
e.g.
Toss #: Sequence
1 : HTTH
2 :TTTT
... : ....
30 :HTHT
3. Based on your outcomes, determine the number of times you
got the following sequences in your N= 30 tosses:
A. n(THHT) B. n(TTTT) C. n(THTT)
4. Using your answer in #3 and the formular P = n/N, compute
the experimental (empirical) probabilities of the following
sequences:
A. P(THHT) B. P(TTTT) C. P(THTT)
5. Construct a tree-diagram based on equally likely events for
tossing one coin 4 times.
6. Based on your tree-diagram, compute the theoretical
probability of the following sequences:
A. P(THHT) B. P(TTTT) C. P(THTT)
7. Create a spreadsheet/table that allows for ease in
comparing your record of the subjective, experimental and
theoretical probabilities for the three sequences, THHT, TTTT,
THTT.
8) Is it okay for your subjective, experimental and
theoretical values for each sequence to be equal or different.
Justify your answer.