In: Finance
Ambev is considering introducing a soft drink to the U.S. market. The drink will initially be
introduced only in the metropolitan areas of the U.S. and the cost of this “limited introduction”
is $500 million.
A financial analysis of the cash flows from this investment suggests that the present value of
the cash flows from this investment to Ambev will be only $400 million.
If the initial introduction works out well, Ambev could go ahead with a full-scale introduction
to the entire market with an additional investment of $1 billion any time over the next 5 years.
While the current expectation is that the cash flows from having this investment is only $750
million, there remains considerable uncertainty about the sales potential of the drink, leading
to significant variance in this estimate.
(a) What is the NPV of the project (“limited introduction”) today based on the expected future
cash flows from the project?
(b) What is the real option that Ambev has in this situation? Can we describe the situation by
making an analogy with a financial option (call option or put option)? Identify the value of the
underlying asset, the exercise price, and the expiration date of the financial option.
(c) Suppose that you estimated the value of the financial option to be $234 million on the basis
of a financial option pricing technique. Should Ambev invest in the project, that is, invest in
the “limited introduction” of the soft drink today?
(a) What is the NPV of the project (“limited introduction”) today based on the expected future cash flows from the project?
NPV = Present Value of Cash Inflows - Present value of Cash Outflows
$400 M - $ 500 M = - $100 M
(b) What is the real option that Ambev has in this situation?: So basically Ambev have a real option of making decision in future regarding the further investment or you can say full-scale introduction.
Can we describe the situation by making an analogy with a financial option (call option or put option)? Yes you can and it is a type of call option. You have a right not an obligation to go for full-scale introduction.
Identify the exercise price = $1 Billion, and the expiration date of the financial option. is End of the 5 year
(c) Suppose that you estimated the value of the financial option to be $234 million on the basis of a financial option pricing technique. Should Ambev invest in the project, that is, invest inthe “limited introduction” of the soft drink today?
While calculating NPV in this case we also have to consider value of the financial option.
NPV in this case = Present Value of Cash Inflows - Present value of Cash Outflows + Value of the financial option
= $ 400m + $750m - $500m - $1000m + $234m = -$116m
Since NPV is Negative we should not invest in this project.