Question

A project manager wants to calculate the probability of completing his project in 30 days. If the variance of the critical path is 1.33 and the critical path is completed in 32 days, what is the probability of completing the project in 30 days?

		41.8%
		32%
		4.18%
		0
		45.82%

Answer 1

Answer is Probability of completing the project within 30 days is 4.18%

Explanation

Critical path ,mu is 32 days

variance,sigma ²=1.33

standard deviation,sigma=sqrt of 1.33=1.153

z=(x-mu)/sigma

x is the required date,here it is 30

Z=(30-32)/1.153=-1.734

probability corresponding to z= -1.734 is 0.04182 ie 4.182% (from normal distribution table)

So Answer is 4.18%