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Please explain what would have been their chance of survival 100 years ago with Escherichia coli...

Please explain what would have been their chance of survival 100 years ago with Escherichia coli (E.Coli)? What was the chance of survival 30 years ago for someome with Escherichia coli (E.Coli) ? what are the chances today?  and what will the chances most likely be 10 years from now?

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Expert Solution

Escherichia coli (abbreviated as E. coli) are a large and diverse group of bacteria. Although most strains of E. coli are harmless, others can make you sick. Some kinds of E. coli can cause diarrhea, while others cause urinary tract infections, respiratory illness and pneumonia, and other illnesses. Still other kinds of E. coli are used as markers for water contamination—so you might hear about E. coli being found in drinking water, which are not themselves harmful, but indicate the water is contaminated.

Some kinds of E. coli cause disease by making a toxin called Shiga toxin. The bacteria that make these toxins are called “Shiga toxin-producing” E. coli, or STEC for short. You might hear them called verocytotoxic E. coli (VTEC) or enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC); these all refer generally to the same group of bacteria. The most commonly identified STEC in North America is E. coli O157:H7 (often shortened to E. coli O157 or even just “O157”). When you hear news reports about outbreaks of “E. coli” infections, they are usually talking about E. coli O157. In addition to E. coli O157, many other kinds (called serogroups) of STEC cause disease. These other kinds are sometimes called “non-O157 STEC.” E. coli serogroups O26, O111, and O103 are the non-O157 serogroups that most often cause illness in people in the United States.

Most of what we know about STEC comes from outbreak investigations and studies of E. coli O157 infection, which was first identified as a pathogen in 1982. The non-O157 STEC are not nearly as well understood, partly because outbreaks due to them are rarely identified. As a whole, the non-O157 127 serogroup is less likely to cause severe illness than E. coli O157; however, some non-O157 STEC serogroups can cause the most severe manifestations of STEC illness.

Ways the infection spreads

Infections start when you swallow STEC—in other words, when you get tiny (usually invisible) amounts of human or animal feces in your mouth. Unfortunately, this happens more often than we would like to think about. Exposures that result in illness include consumption of contaminated food, consumption of unpasteurized (raw) milk, consumption of water that has not 128 been disinfected, contact with cattle, or contact with the feces of infected people. Some foods are considered to carry such a high risk of infection with E. coli O157 or another germ that health officials recommend that people avoid them completely. These foods include unpasteurized (raw) milk, unpasteurized apple cider, and soft cheeses made from raw milk. Sometimes the contact is pretty obvious (working with cows at a dairy or changing diapers, for example), but sometimes it is not (like eating an undercooked hamburger or a contaminated piece of lettuce). People have gotten infected by swallowing lake water while swimming, touching the environment in petting zoos and other animal exhibits, and by eating food prepared by people who did not wash their hands well after using the toilet. Almost everyone has some risk of infection.

Because there are so many possible sources, for most people we can only guess. If your infection happens to be part of the about 20% of cases that are part of a recognized outbreak, the health department might identify the source.

Experts think that there may be about 70,000 infections with E. coli O157 each year in the United States. We can only estimate because we know that many infected people do not seek medical care,many do not submit a stool specimen for testing, and many labs do not test for STEC. We think that a similar number of persons have diarrhea caused by non-O157 STEC. Many labs do not identify non-O157 STEC infection because it takes even more work than identifying E. coli O157.

STEC infections are usually diagnosed through lab testing of stool specimens (feces). Identifying the specific strain of STEC involved is very important for public health purposes, such as finding outbreaks. Most labs can determine if an STEC is present and can identify E. coli O157. To determine the O group of non-O157 STEC, strains must be sent to a State Public Health laboratory.

Ways to prevent E.coli infection

WASH YOUR HANDS thoroughly after using the bathroom or changing diapers and before preparing or eating food.

WASH YOUR HANDS after contact with animals or their environments (at farms, petting zoos, fairs, even your own backyard)

COOK meats thoroughly. Ground beef and meat that has been needletenderized should be cooked to a temperature of at least 160°F/70°C. It’s best to use a thermometer, as color is not a very reliable indicator of “doneness.”

AVOID raw milk, unpasteurized dairy products, and unpasteurized juices (like fresh apple cider).

AVOID swallowing water when swimming or playing in lakes, ponds, streams, swimming pools, and backyard “kiddie” pools.

PREVENT cross contamination in food preparation areas by thoroughly washing hands, counters, cutting boards, and utensils after they touch raw meat.

Chance of survival 100 years ago

Since awareness among people suffering with E.coli was very less 100 years ago, the mortality rate should be highest and chance of survival the lowest. Also the pathogenic strains were not identified by then.

Chance of survival 30 years

The pathogenic strains were identified in 1982,but still people awareness was very low. So the chances of survival were low

Chance of survival today

As people are getting more and more aware and the health department has already a database of identified strains. Stool test is a definite identifier for the E.coli diseases. So chances are far better than the past. People are made aware of the reasons for infections and their preventions .

WASH YOUR HANDS thoroughly after using the bathroom or changing diapers and before preparing or eating food.

WASH YOUR HANDS after contact with animals or their environments (at farms, petting zoos, fairs, even your own backyard)

COOK meats thoroughly. Ground beef and meat that has been needletenderized should be cooked to a temperature of at least 160°F/70°C. It’s best to use a thermometer, as color is not a very reliable indicator of “doneness.”

AVOID raw milk, unpasteurized dairy products, and unpasteurized juices (like fresh apple cider).

AVOID swallowing water when swimming or playing in lakes, ponds, streams, swimming pools, and backyard “kiddie” pools.

PREVENT cross contamination in food preparation areas by thoroughly washing hands, counters, cutting boards, and utensils after they touch raw meat.

Chances of survival 10 years from now

Definitely the chances of survival will increase as more advanced diagnosis will come into the existence. Also the prevention techniques which are known today would have made more people aware .


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