In: Finance
Define in 200 words: Garch (1,1) model
Answer-
Generalized Autoregressive Conditional
Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) allows to support changes in the time
dependent volatility, such as increasing and decreasing volatility
in the same series.
GARCH, is an extended form of the ARCH model that incorporates a
moving average component together with the autoregressive
component.
GARCH(1,1) is used for a single time series. In GARCH(1,1) model, current volatility is influenced by past innovation to volatility. It is used for modeling of univariate finacial time-series, that simultaneously model both mean and variance equation.
Garch (1,1) model is used to derive conditional
volatility estimates by using the standard Maximum Likelihood
method using the numerical computation. The returns do not have a
normal distribution, that they have long tails. It is reasonable to
hypothesize that the long tails are due entirely due to garch
effects, in which case using a normal distribution in the garch
model would be appropriate, however using the likelihood of a
longer tailed distribution turns out to give a better fit always
most of the time.
GARCH (1,1) model explains volatility and its the most appropriate
model for explaining volatility clustering and fat tails.
GARCH(1,1) model can be used to describe the stylized facts of
volatility clustering and excess kurtosis
however asymmetric effects of positive and negative
shocks on the conditional volatility are explained by this
model.