In: Finance
Sora Industries has 60 million outstanding shares, $121 million in debt, $51 million in cash, and the following projected free cash flow for the next four years:
Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
|||
Earnings and FCF Forecast ($ million) |
||||||||
1 |
Sales |
433.0 |
468.0 |
516.0 |
547.0 |
574.3 |
||
2 |
Growth vs. Prior Year |
8.1% |
10.3% |
6.0% |
5.0% |
|||
3 |
Cost of Goods Sold |
(313.6) |
(345.7) |
(366.5) |
(384.8) |
|||
4 |
Gross Profit |
154.4 |
170.3 |
180.5 |
189.5 |
|||
5 |
Selling, General, & Admin. |
(93.6) |
(103.2) |
(109.4) |
(114.9) |
|||
6 |
Depreciation |
(7.0) |
(7.5) |
(9.0) |
(9.5) |
|||
7 |
EBIT |
53.8 |
59.6 |
62.1 |
65.2 |
|||
8 |
Less: Income Tax at 40% |
(21.5) |
(23.8) |
(24.8) |
(26.1) |
|||
9 |
Plus: Depreciation |
7.0 |
7.5 |
9.0 |
9.5 |
|||
10 |
Less: Capital Expenditures |
(7.7) |
(10.0) |
(9.9) |
(10.4) |
|||
11 |
Less: Increase in NWC |
(6.3) |
(8.6) |
(5.6) |
(4.9) |
|||
12 |
Free Cash Flow |
25.3 |
24.6 |
30.8 |
33.3 |
a. Suppose Sora's revenue and free cash flow are expected to grow at a 5.9% rate beyond year four. If Sora's weighted average cost of capital is 11.0%, what is the value of Sora stock based on this information?
b. Sora's cost of goods sold was assumed to be 67% of sales. If its cost of goods sold is actually 70% of sales, how would the estimate of the stock's value change?
c. Return to the assumptions of part (a) and suppose Sora can maintain its cost of goods sold at 67% of sales. However, the firm reduces its selling, general, and administrative expenses from 20% of sales to 16% of sales. What stock price would you estimate now? (Assume no other expenses, except taxes, are affected.)
d. Sora's net working capital needs were estimated to be 18% of sales (their current level in year zero). If Sora can reduce this requirement to 12% of sales starting in year 1, but all other assumptions are as in (a),what stock price do you estimate for Sora? (Hint:This change will have the largest impact on Sora's free cash flow in year 1.)
PLEASE ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS: The answers are suppose to be small varying from $2-$6
a.
GOGS% | 67% | ||||
Selling, General, & Admin | 20% | ||||
Working Capital | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
Net Working Capital | 77.9 | 84.2 | 92.9 | 98.5 | 103.4 |
Increase in Workinh Capital | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 4.9 |
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
1 | Sales | 433 | 468 | 516 | 547 | 574.3 | |
2 | Growth Vs. Previous year | 8.10% | 10.30% | 6% | 5% | ||
3 | Cost of Goods Sold | -313.6 | -345.7 | -366.5 | -384.8 | ||
4 | Gross Profit | 154.4 | 170.3 | 180.5 | 189.5 | ||
5 | Selling, General, & Admin | -93.6 | -103.2 | -109.4 | -114.9 | ||
6 | Depreciation | -7 | -7.5 | -9 | -9.5 | ||
7 | EBIT | 53.8 | 59.6 | 62.1 | 65.2 | ||
8 | Less: Income Tax @40% | -21.5 | -23.8 | -24.8 | -26.1 | ||
9 | Plus: Depreciation | 7 | 7.5 | 9 | 9.5 | ||
10 | Less: Capital Expenditures | -7.7 | -10 | -9.9 | -10.4 | ||
11 | Less: Increase in NWC | -6.3 | -8.6 | -5.6 | -4.9 | ||
12 | Free Cash flow | 25.3 | 24.6 | 30.8 | 33.3 | 35.3 | |
Value of the firm at the end of 4 year (35.3 / (11%-5.9%) | 691.46 | ||||||
Total Inflow | 25.3 | 24.6 | 30.8 | 724.76 | |||
PV Factor @11% | 0.9009 | 0.8116 | 0.7312 | 0.6587 | |||
Present value of inflows | 22.79 | 19.97 | 22.52 | 477.40 | |||
Enterprise value | 542.68 | ||||||
Less: Debt | -121 | ||||||
Add: Cash | 51 | ||||||
Equity value | 472.68 | ||||||
Number of shares | 60 | ||||||
Share value | 7.88 |
b. If Cost of goods sold is 70% of sales.
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
1 | Sales | 433 | 468 | 516 | 547 | 574.3 | |
2 | Growth Vs. Previous year | 8.10% | 10.30% | 6% | 5% | ||
3 | Cost of Goods Sold | -327.6 | -361.2 | -382.9 | -402.01 | ||
4 | Gross Profit | 140.4 | 154.8 | 164.1 | 172.29 | ||
5 | Selling, General, & Admin | -93.6 | -103.2 | -109.4 | -114.9 | ||
6 | Depreciation | -7 | -7.5 | -9 | -9.5 | ||
7 | EBIT | 39.8 | 44.1 | 45.7 | 47.89 | ||
8 | Less: Income Tax @40% | -15.92 | -17.64 | -18.28 | -19.156 | ||
9 | Plus: Depreciation | 7 | 7.5 | 9 | 9.5 | ||
10 | Less: Capital Expenditures | -7.7 | -10 | -9.9 | -10.4 | ||
11 | Less: Increase in NWC | -6.3 | -8.6 | -5.6 | -4.9 | ||
12 | Free Cash flow | 16.88 | 15.36 | 20.92 | 22.934 | 24.3 | |
Value of the firm at the end of 4 year (24.3 / (11%-5.9%) | 476.22 | ||||||
Total Inflow | 16.88 | 15.36 | 20.92 | 499.15 | |||
PV Factor @11% | 0.9009 | 0.8116 | 0.7312 | 0.6587 | |||
Present value of inflows | 15.21 | 12.47 | 15.30 | 328.79 | |||
Enterprise value | 371.76 | ||||||
Less: Debt | -121 | ||||||
Add: Cash | 51 | ||||||
Equity value | 301.76 | ||||||
Number of shares | 60 | ||||||
Share value | 5.03 |
c. The firm reduces its selling, general, and administrative expenses from 20% of sales to 16% of sales:
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
1 | Sales | 433 | 468 | 516 | 547 | 574.3 | |
2 | Growth Vs. Previous year | 8.10% | 10.30% | 6% | 5% | ||
3 | Cost of Goods Sold | -313.6 | -345.7 | -366.5 | -384.8 | ||
4 | Gross Profit | 154.4 | 170.3 | 180.5 | 189.5 | ||
5 | Selling, General, & Admin | -74.9 | -82.6 | -87.5 | -91.9 | ||
6 | Depreciation | -7 | -7.5 | -9 | -9.5 | ||
7 | EBIT | 72.5 | 80.2 | 84.0 | 88.1 | ||
8 | Less: Income Tax @40% | -29.0 | -32.1 | -33.6 | -35.2 | ||
9 | Plus: Depreciation | 7 | 7.5 | 9 | 9.5 | ||
10 | Less: Capital Expenditures | -7.7 | -10 | -9.9 | -10.4 | ||
11 | Less: Increase in NWC | -6.3 | -8.6 | -5.6 | -4.9 | ||
12 | Free Cash flow | 36.5 | 37.0 | 43.9 | 47.1 | 49.8 | |
Value of the firm at the end of 4 year (49.8 / (11%-5.9%) | 977.34 | ||||||
Total Inflow | 36.512 | 37.044 | 43.888 | 1024.40 | |||
PV Factor @11% | 0.9009 | 0.8116 | 0.7312 | 0.6587 | |||
Present value of inflows | 32.89 | 30.06 | 32.09 | 674.77 | |||
Enterprise value | 769.82 | ||||||
Less: Debt | -121 | ||||||
Add: Cash | 51 | ||||||
Equity value | 699.82 | ||||||
Number of shares | 60 | ||||||
Share value | 11.66 |
d.
GOGS% | 67% | ||||
Selling, General, & Admin | 20% | ||||
Working Capital | 18% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
Net Working Capital | 77.9 | 56.2 | 61.9 | 65.6 | 68.9 |
Increase in Workinh Capital | -21.8 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
1 | Sales | 433 | 468 | 516 | 547 | 574.3 | |
2 | Growth Vs. Previous year | 8.10% | 10.30% | 6% | 5% | ||
3 | Cost of Goods Sold | -313.6 | -345.7 | -366.5 | -384.8 | ||
4 | Gross Profit | 154.4 | 170.3 | 180.5 | 189.5 | ||
5 | Selling, General, & Admin | -93.6 | -103.2 | -109.4 | -114.9 | ||
6 | Depreciation | -7 | -7.5 | -9 | -9.5 | ||
7 | EBIT | 53.8 | 59.6 | 62.1 | 65.1 | ||
8 | Less: Income Tax @40% | -21.5 | -23.8 | -24.8 | -26.1 | ||
9 | Plus: Depreciation | 7 | 7.5 | 9 | 9.5 | ||
10 | Less: Capital Expenditures | -7.7 | -10 | -9.9 | -10.4 | ||
11 | Less: Increase in NWC | 21.78 | -5.76 | -3.72 | -3.276 | ||
12 | Free Cash flow | 53.4 | 27.5 | 32.6 | 34.9 | 37.0 | |
Value of the firm at the end of 4 year (37 / (11%-5.9%) | 724.85 | ||||||
Total Inflow | 53.36 | 27.5 | 32.64 | 759.76 | |||
PV Factor @11% | 0.9009 | 0.8116 | 0.7312 | 0.6587 | |||
Present value of inflows | 48.07 | 22.32 | 23.87 | 500.46 | |||
Enterprise value | 594.71 | ||||||
Less: Debt | -121 | ||||||
Add: Cash | 51 | ||||||
Equity value | 524.71 | ||||||
Number of shares | 60 | ||||||
Share value | 8.75 |