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Sora Industries has 60 million outstanding​ shares, $ 120 million in​ debt, $ 40 million in​...

Sora Industries has 60 million outstanding​ shares, $ 120 million in​ debt, $ 40 million in​ cash, and the following projected free cash flow for the next four years.  

Year 0 1 2 3 4
Earning & FCF Forecast ($millions)
1 Sales 433 468 516 547 574.3
2    Growth vs. Prior Year 8.1% 10.3% 6.0% 5.0%
3 Cost of Goods Sold (313.6) (345.7) (366.5) (384.8)
4 Gross Profit 154.4 170.3 180.5 189.5
5 Selling, General & Admin. (93.6) (103.2) (109.4) (114.9)
6 Depreciation (7.0) (7.5) (9.0) (9.5)
7 EBIT 53.8 59.6 62.1 65.2
8 Less: Income tax at 40% (21.5) (23.8) (24.8) (26.1)
9 Plus: Depreciation 7 7.5 9 9.5
10 Less: Capital Expenditures (7.7) (10.0) (9.9) (10.4)
11 Less: Increases in NWC (6.3) (8.6) (5.6) (4.9)
12 Free Cash Flow 25.3 24.6 30.8 33.3

a. Suppose​ Sora's revenue and free cash flow are expected to grow at a 5.0% rate beyond year 4. If​ Sora's weighted average cost of capital is 10.0 %, what is the value of​ Sora's stock based on this​ information? The stock price for this case is $ round to two decimal points.

b.​ Sora's cost of goods sold was assumed to be​ 67% of sales. If its cost of goods sold is actually​ 70% of​ sales, how would the estimate of the​ stock's value​ change?  

c. ​Let's return to the assumptions of part ​(a​) and suppose Sora can maintain its cost of goods sold at​ 67% of sales.​ However, now suppose Sora reduces its​ selling, general, and administrative expenses from​ 20% of sales to​ 16% of sales. What stock price would you estimate​ now? (Assume no other​ expenses, except​ taxes, are​ affected.)

d. ​Sora's net working capital needs were estimated to be​ 18% of sales​ (which is their current level in year​ 0). If Sora can reduce this requirement to​ 12% of sales starting in year​ 1, but all other assumptions remain as in part ​(a​), what stock price do you estimate for​ Sora? ​(Hint​: This change will have the largest impact on​ Sora's free cash flow in year​ 1.)  

Solutions

Expert Solution

Steps

  • We make the Free Cash Flows as per the information. We find the terminal value at end of Year 3: Year 3 Cash Flow (1+ Growth) / (Cost of Capital - Growth)
  • We add the FCF and terminal value
  • We discount the Value . DF for each year = 1/ (1+R)^N
  • We find PV by multiplying DF and Value
  • Take the sum of PV which is value of firm
  • We add cash deduct debt to find value of equity
  • Divide value of equity by 60 million shares which is value per share

a)

0 1 2 3
Sales 433 468 516 547
8.10% 10.30% 6.00%
COGS          313.6          345.9          366.7
GP       154.46       170.37       180.60
SGA 93.6146 103.2569 109.4523
Depreciation 7 7.5 9
EBIT          53.85          59.62          62.14
LessTaxes        -21.54        -23.85        -24.86
Add Dep            7.00            7.50            9.00
Less Capex -7.7 -10 -9.9
Less Working Capital          -6.31          -8.68          -5.58
FCF            25.3            24.6            30.8
Terminal Value       647.02
Net Total            25.3            24.6          677.8
Discount Factor            0.91            0.83            0.75
PV          23.00          20.32       509.26
Total Value of Firm       552.59
Add Cash 40
Less Debt -120
Value of Equity       472.59
Per Share            7.88

b) COGS increase to 70%, revised value. Corrresponding Gross Profit , EBIT and taxes will change

0 1 2 3
COGS          327.7          361.4          383.1
GP       140.42       154.89       164.18
SGA 93.6146 103.2569 109.4523
Depreciation 7 7.5 9
EBIT          39.81          44.13          45.73
LessTaxes        -15.92        -17.65        -18.29
Add Dep            7.00            7.50            9.00
Less Capex -7.7 -10 -9.9
Less Working Capital          -6.31          -8.68          -5.58
FCF            16.9            15.3            21.0
Terminal Value       440.16
Net Total            16.9            15.3          461.1
Discount Factor            0.91            0.83            0.75
PV          15.34          12.64       346.44
Total Value of Firm       374.42
Add Cash 40
Less Debt -120
Value of Equity       294.42
Per Share            4.91

c) SGA Reduces to 16% Corrresponding EBIT and taxes will change

0 1 2 3
GP       154.46       170.37       180.60
SGA 74.89168 82.60552 87.56185
Depreciation 7 7.5 9
EBIT          72.57          80.27          84.03
LessTaxes        -29.03        -32.11        -33.61
Add Dep            7.00            7.50            9.00
Less Capex -7.7 -10 -9.9
Less Working Capital          -6.31          -8.68          -5.58
FCF            36.5            37.0            43.9
Terminal Value       922.84
Net Total            36.5            37.0          966.8
Discount Factor            0.91            0.83            0.75

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