Question

In: Economics

The index of industrial production (IPt) is a monthly time series that measures the quantity of industrial commodities produced in a given month.

The index of industrial production (IPt) is a monthly time series that measures the quantity of industrial commodities produced in a given month. This problem uses data on this index for the United States. All regressions are estimated over the sample period 1960:1 through2000:12 (that is, January 1960 through December 2000). Let , Yt=1200xln(IPt/IPt-1), which gives the monthly percentage change in the industrial production index measured in percentage points at an annual rate. Suppose that a forecaster estimates the following AR(4) model for Yt :

.Yt=1.377 + .318Yt-1 + .123Yt-2 + .068Yt-3 + .001Yt-4

Use this AR(4) model to forecast the value of  in January 2001 using the following values of Yt for August 2000 through December 2000:

Date

2000:7

2000:8

2000:9

2000:10

2000:11

2000:12

IP

147.595

148.650

148.973

148.660

148.206

147.300

Solutions

Expert Solution

 

 


Related Solutions

The index of industrial production ( t IP ) is a monthly time series that measures...
The index of industrial production ( t IP ) is a monthly time series that measures the quantity of industrial commodities produced in a given month. Suppose that an analyst has data on this index for the United States. The analyst begins by computing Y subscript t = 1200 X ln IP subscript t / IP subscript t-1 , which gives the monthly percentage change in IP measured in percentage points at an annual rate. The analyst estimates an AR(4)...
A firm with a production function given by ?=170?q=170N, where ?q is the quantity produced and...
A firm with a production function given by ?=170?q=170N, where ?q is the quantity produced and ?N is the number of workers hired. The firm sells its product in a competitive market, and the market price of its good is ?=1p=1. The firm, however, is the only employer in the town where it operates, and hence it does not take the cost of labour as given. The inverse labour supply function in this town is given by ?=50+0.02?2w=50+0.02N2. (a) Write...
v Consider the monthly time series shown in the table. Month t Y January 1 185...
v Consider the monthly time series shown in the table. Month t Y January 1 185 February 2 192 March 3 189 April 4 201 May 5 195 June 6 199 July 7 206 August 8 203 September 9 208 October 10 209 November 11 218 December 12 216 Use the method of least squares to fit the model E(Yt) = β0 + β1t to the data. Write the prediction equation. Use the prediction equation to obtain forecasts for the...
Consider the monthly time series shown in the table. Month t Y January 1 185 February...
Consider the monthly time series shown in the table. Month t Y January 1 185 February 2 192 March 3 189 April 4 201 May 5 195 June 6 199 July 7 206 August 8 203 September 9 208 October 10 209 November 11 218 December 12 216 Use the method of least squares to fit the model E(Yt) = β0 + β1t to the data. Write the prediction equation. Use the prediction equation to obtain forecasts for the next...
Briefly explain a series of measures proposed by Hamilton (1791) to achieve the industrial development in...
Briefly explain a series of measures proposed by Hamilton (1791) to achieve the industrial development in the US.
ECONOMICS QUESTION ONE [25] “The production possibility frontier measures the efficiency in which two commodities can...
ECONOMICS QUESTION ONE [25] “The production possibility frontier measures the efficiency in which two commodities can be produced together, helping managers and leaders to decide what mix of commodities is most beneficial.” In terms of the above statement, apply the basic economic model of the production possibility frontier, (PPF), to your country or a country of your choice, indicating how it illustrates the fundamental economic problem of scarcity, choice and opportunity cost. Include in your answer a discussion of the...
Production quantity and the total cost of production are given in the form of a table....
Production quantity and the total cost of production are given in the form of a table. Production quantity (100 tons) 42 16 48 50 30 12 18 28 Total cost (1000 of Rs.) 22 10 14 20 14 8 12 16 Determine the total cost production for (i) 2500 tons (ii) 4500 tons If the total production cost is Rs. 50,000, then how many quantities were produced?
A technique used to isolate the trend in a time series is: adjusted factor% seasonal index...
A technique used to isolate the trend in a time series is: adjusted factor% seasonal index correction factor centered moving average seasonal decomposition
4. Suppose a firm’s technology is described by a production function where the quantity produced is...
4. Suppose a firm’s technology is described by a production function where the quantity produced is equal to the square root of capital times labor (that is, Q = √(L●K) a. Using graph paper, draw the isoquant for output = 8 units. b. Suppose the firm has $128 to spend on its variable inputs and the price of L and K is $8. On the same graph on which you drew the isoquant, draw the isocost line. What is the...
Use the Naïve Method of forecasting, prepare tables and calculate forecast accuracy measures. What is the forecast for month 11? Prepare the Time Series Plots.
Consider the following time series data.   Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Value 12 19 24 13 20 23 15 21 23 18   Use the Naïve Method of forecasting, prepare tables and calculate forecast accuracy measures. What is the forecast for month 11? Prepare the Time Series Plots. Use the “Historical Average Forecasting Method” that calculates “Forecast for a month” as “the average of all the observed data right from the beginning up...
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT