In: Economics
The index of industrial production (IPt) is a monthly time series that measures the quantity of industrial commodities produced in a given month. This problem uses data on this index for the United States. All regressions are estimated over the sample period 1960:1 through2000:12 (that is, January 1960 through December 2000). Let , Yt=1200xln(IPt/IPt-1), which gives the monthly percentage change in the industrial production index measured in percentage points at an annual rate. Suppose that a forecaster estimates the following AR(4) model for Yt :
.Yt=1.377 + .318Yt-1 + .123Yt-2 + .068Yt-3 + .001Yt-4
Use this AR(4) model to forecast the value of in January 2001 using the following values of Yt for August 2000 through December 2000:
Date |
2000:7 |
2000:8 |
2000:9 |
2000:10 |
2000:11 |
2000:12 |
IP |
147.595 |
148.650 |
148.973 |
148.660 |
148.206 |
147.300 |