Question

In: Statistics and Probability

Consider the monthly time series shown in the table. Month t Y January 1 185 February...

Consider the monthly time series shown in the table.

Month	t	Y
January	1	185
February	2	192
March	3	189
April	4	201
May	5	195
June	6	199
July	7	206
August	8	203
September	9	208
October	10	209
November	11	218
December	12	216

Use the method of least squares to fit the model E(Yt) = β0 + β1t to the data. Write the prediction equation.
Use the prediction equation to obtain forecasts for the next two months.
Find 95% forecast intervals for the next two months.

Expert Solution

Minitab > Stat > Regression > Regression > Fit regression model

a)

E(Yt) = β0 + β1t

E(Yt) = 184 + 2.731*t

b)

Again Minitab > Stat > Regression > Regression > Prediction

If t = 13, E(Y13) = 219.5

If t = 14, E(Y14) = 222.231

c)

Prediction intervals

If t = 13

95% PI = (211.067, 227.933)

If t = 14

95% PI = (213.504, 230.958)

orchestra answered 2 years ago

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