Question

The monthly ambulatory visit shown in the Table below occurred in an outpatient clinic.

month	visits
July	2160
august	2186
September	2246
october	2251
november	2243
december	2162

1. Prepare a forecast for January visits, using the simple exponential smoothing method with α = 0.3.
2. If α = 0.5, what is the predicted value for January visits?
3. If α = 0.0, what is the predicted value for January visits
4. If α = 1.0, what is the predicted value for January visits
5. Which alpha produces the best forecast?

Answer 1

Solve using Excel:

Part a: α = 0.3.

	α	0.3
Month	Actual (A)	Foercast (F)	A-F	(A-F)2
July	2160	2160.00	0.00	0.00
August	2186	2160.00	26.00	676.00
September	2246	2167.80	78.20	6115.24
October	2251	2191.26	59.74	3568.87
November	2243	2209.18	33.82	1143.66
December	2162	2219.33	-57.33	3286.43
January		2202.13
			MSE	2465.03
Month	Actual (A)	Foercast (F)	A-F	(A-F)2
July	2160	=B3	=B3-C3	=D3^2
August	2186	=C3+$C$1*D3	=B4-C4	=D4^2
September	2246	=C4+$C$1*D4	=B5-C5	=D5^2
October	2251	=C5+$C$1*D5	=B6-C6	=D6^2
November	2243	=C6+$C$1*D6	=B7-C7	=D7^2
December	2162	=C7+$C$1*D7	=B8-C8	=D8^2
January		=C8+$C$1*D8
			MSE	=AVERAGE(E3:E8)

January = 2202.13

Part b: α = 0.5

	α	0.5
Month	Actual (A)	Foercast (F)	A-F	(A-F)2
July	2160	2160.00	0.00	0.00
August	2186	2160.00	26.00	676.00
September	2246	2173.00	73.00	5329.00
October	2251	2209.50	41.50	1722.25
November	2243	2230.25	12.75	162.56
December	2162	2236.63	-74.63	5568.89
January		2199.31
			MSE	2243.12
Month	Actual (A)	Foercast (F)	A-F	(A-F)2
July	2160	=H3	=H3-I3	=J3^2
August	2186	=I3+$I$1*J3	=H4-I4	=J4^2
September	2246	=I4+$I$1*J4	=H5-I5	=J5^2
October	2251	=I5+$I$1*J5	=H6-I6	=J6^2
November	2243	=I6+$I$1*J6	=H7-I7	=J7^2
December	2162	=I7+$I$1*J7	=H8-I8	=J8^2
January		=I8+$I$1*J8
			MSE	=AVERAGE(K3:K8)

January = 2199.31

Part c: α = 0.0

	α	0
Month	Actual (A)	Foercast (F)	A-F	(A-F)2
July	2160	2160.00	0.00	0.00
August	2186	2160.00	26.00	676.00
September	2246	2160.00	86.00	7396.00
October	2251	2160.00	91.00	8281.00
November	2243	2160.00	83.00	6889.00
December	2162	2160.00	2.00	4.00
January		2160.00
			MSE	3874.33
Month	Actual (A)	Foercast (F)	A-F	(A-F)2
July	2160	=N3	=N3-O3	=P3^2
August	2186	=O3+$O$1*P3	=N4-O4	=P4^2
September	2246	=O4+$O$1*P4	=N5-O5	=P5^2
October	2251	=O5+$O$1*P5	=N6-O6	=P6^2
November	2243	=O6+$O$1*P6	=N7-O7	=P7^2
December	2162	=O7+$O$1*P7	=N8-O8	=P8^2
January		=O8+$O$1*P8
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