Question

Five years of a well-established brand’s monthly sales volume data are shown in the table below. As may be noted, there is substantial seasonality in this brand's sales.

Forecaster Simulation: Problem #3 Data

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
January	5550	4782	5283	4760	4314
February	5398	4897	4544	4930	4476
March	4236	4693	4370	4930	4476
April	2977	3747	2419	3065	3350
May	2345	2235	2463	2546	2274
June	1198	1156	1887	1602	1250
July	1090	1196	1194	1818	1392
AUgust	1530	1889	1759	2190	1942
September	1388	1324	2077	2007	1836
October	1522	1269	1440	1387	1593
November	2252	1763	1601	1571	1356
December	3746	3812	3712	3720	3642

Develop a monthly sales volume forecast for the brand for each of the first six months of Year 6. A total of six monthly forecasts are needed … one for each of January, Year 6 through to June, Year 6.

Describe the tool you will use to complete this forecast. Be sure to include "The tool I chose ..." or your answer will be marked incorrect.

Answer 1

The tool i chose to forecast sales is "projection of past sales" or "historical forecasting" method.

Percentage of increase and decrease of sales for each year is analysed and calculated the average percentage of change in the sales yearwise. With the help of that, Sales forecast is prepared for year 6..

Calculation is as follows:

Particulars	Year 1	Change in % to year2	Year 2	Change in % to year3	Year 3	Change in % to year4	Year 4	Change in % to year5	Year 5	Average change in %	Increase/ Decrease	Sales Forecast Year 6
January	5550	-14%	4782	10%	5283	-10%	4760	-9%	4314	-6%	-244	4070
February	5398	-9%	4897	-7%	4544	8%	4930	-9%	4476	-4%	-193	4283
March	4236	11%	4693	-7%	4370	13%	4930	-9%	4476	2%	84	4560
April	2977	26%	3747	-35%	2419	27%	3065	9%	3350	7%	221	3571
May	2345	-5%	2235	10%	2463	3%	2546	-11%	2274	0%	-10	2264
June	1198	-4%	1156	63%	1887	-15%	1602	-22%	1250	6%	71	1321
July	1090	10%	1196	0%	1194	52%	1818	-23%	1392	10%	134	1526
AUgust	1530	23%	1889	-7%	1759	25%	2190	-11%	1942	7%	144	2086
September	1388	-5%	1324	57%	2077	-3%	2007	-9%	1836	10%	185	2021
October	1522	-17%	1269	13%	1440	-4%	1387	15%	1593	2%	32	1625
November	2252	-22%	1763	-9%	1601	-2%	1571	-14%	1356	-12%	-158	1198
December	3746	2%	3812	-3%	3712	0%	3720	-2%	3642	-1%	-25	3617