In: Statistics and Probability
For the data listed below, conduct following in Excel
i) Create a forecast with 4-day moving average,
ii) Create a forecast using exponential smoothing method with smoothing constant equal to 0.6,
iii) Compute Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and identify which of the two methods produces a forecast with better accuracy.
| Day | Sales ('000 $) |
| 1 | 1735 |
| 2 | 1719 |
| 3 | 2025 |
| 4 | 1295 |
| 5 | 717 |
| 6 | 4317 |
| 7 | 2681 |
| 8 | 2669 |
| 9 | 6273 |
| 10 | 2049 |
| 11 | 2585 |
| 12 | 4895 |
| 13 | 2057 |
| 14 | 6955 |
| 15 | 2239 |
| 16 | 2369 |
| 17 | 6889 |
| 18 | 1697 |
| 19 | 309 |
| 20 | 715 |
| 21 | 5231 |
| 22 | 1503 |
| 23 | 1457 |
| 24 | 1785 |
| 25 | 2041 |
| 26 | 249 |
| 27 | 747 |