In: Statistics and Probability
For the data listed below, conduct following in Excel
i) Create a forecast with 4-day moving average,
ii) Create a forecast using exponential smoothing method with smoothing constant equal to 0.6,
iii) Compute Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and identify which of the two methods produces a forecast with better accuracy.
| Day | Sales ('000 $) | 
| 1 | 1735 | 
| 2 | 1719 | 
| 3 | 2025 | 
| 4 | 1295 | 
| 5 | 717 | 
| 6 | 4317 | 
| 7 | 2681 | 
| 8 | 2669 | 
| 9 | 6273 | 
| 10 | 2049 | 
| 11 | 2585 | 
| 12 | 4895 | 
| 13 | 2057 | 
| 14 | 6955 | 
| 15 | 2239 | 
| 16 | 2369 | 
| 17 | 6889 | 
| 18 | 1697 | 
| 19 | 309 | 
| 20 | 715 | 
| 21 | 5231 | 
| 22 | 1503 | 
| 23 | 1457 | 
| 24 | 1785 | 
| 25 | 2041 | 
| 26 | 249 | 
| 27 | 747 |