Question

What factors contribute to the demographic profile of north korea (fertility rate, family size, immigration, aging

Answer 1

South Korea’s Population May Have Already Peaked

Recent statistics suggest South Korea’s population may be aging even more quickly than previous worst-case scenarios predicted.

Although the rapid aging and eventual decline of South Korea’s population has been projected for years, recent trends are exceeding even worst-case projections and pushing forward the point at which South Korea’s population declines and it experiences the associated economic headwinds.

In 2018, South Korea became the first country to see its total fertility rate fall to 0.98, which is significantly less than the rate of 2.1 that is required to maintain a stable population. It’s also below estimates of the total fertility rate required to maintain the current levels of economic consumption in South Korea.

Early estimates for 2019 suggest that South Korea’s total fertility rate continued to decline. Through November of last year, South Korea has posted 44 consecutive months of falling year-on-year births and seen overall births fall 7.3 percent from their 2018 levels. With deaths also outpacing births, November was the first month where South Korea’s population declined naturally since statistics began being tracked in 1981.

With birth rates continuing to decline, prior estimates of changes in South Korea’s population are proving inadequate. As recently as last year, Statistics Korea projected that South Korea’s total population would peak in 2028, with the worst-case scenario being that total population would peak in 2023. With the 2019 figures now largely known, Statistics Korea now estimates that the population will begin to decline overall this year and likely peaked in 2019.