In: Economics
For nearly three decades, China has experienced its slowest economic growth. The trouble began to start in the fall. Growth in salaries has cooled down. Surveys show that companies have started losing jobs in the manufacturing sector. Yet imports are dropping, affecting other major export economies.
The slowdown is due to more than one cause. The combination of a rapidly aging population, a declining birth rate, a tightening Federal Reserve, and a slowing global economy has put the brakes on China's economy. Beijing, however, can not threaten a depression. The Chinese government is not going to allow growth to slow dramatically, even if that means storing up future problems.
The issues of China stem largely from decisions taken years— in some cases decades— ago. In the past, China has benefited from an increasing population, raising GDP both through the addition of jobs and because younger workers appear to be more productive than older workers. But the working-age population started to shrink around 2012, the inevitable result of the one child policy that was introduced in 1979. This population winnowing is partially due to the decline in growth rates.
Another issue is the rise in wages. Chinese salaries are now matching or exceeding those of most other emerging market economies, rendering China less attractive to foreign firms. In contrast, high living costs and administrative burdens have limited rural farmers ' floods into cities to a trickle. The total rural disposable income in 2018 was 14,617 yuan per year, small enough to make moving to the city prohibitive when an apartment in urban areas now has an average price of 14,678 yuan per square meter. There are withering forces that have powered Chinese growth in recent years. China used to rely on a trade surplus to boost growth, but the country's account today is actually balanced. Traditionally, investment in fixed assets such as factories, equipment, offices and apartment buildings has been a significant source of growth
There is some confusion about China's actual growth rate— the Chinese government reports 7 percent per annum, but global analysts believe the pace is much lower, and China is now facing a recession. We look at five specific areas in this video to gain a better understanding: real estate bubble, stock market bubble, municipal debt excess, excess capacity of Chinese companies, and capital flight risk. If you look at all these areas together, it paints a very complex picture, and one that proves to be difficult for China to manage.
There are still reasons to remain optimistic, however. China has invested enormously in human capital, one of any global economy's most valuable assets. Such human capital projects will certainly overcome the current recession and will help facilitate a promising economic future.