Question

Do you believe that Forensic Psychologists can provide accurate assessments of risk; and, (b) what predictive accuracy (25%, 50%, 75%, etc.) would you deem acceptable for those risk assessment judgments when used in legal decision-making?

Answer 1

Forensic risk assessment is frequently referred to as violence risk assessment attempts to predict the likelihood that an individual will commit a violent or anti-social act.The work of forensic psychologists helps practitioners and policymakers: Implement risk reduction strategies for those in need.Extensive research indicates that risk assessment tools improve the accuracy of professional judgments about the likelihood of future criminal behavior, violence, and sexual offending [8].Actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) are one type of tool, and they are based on statistical models of weighted factors supported by research as being predictive of the likelihood of future offending. A risk score is calculated by assigning numeric values to risk factors such as criminal history, mental illness, and substance abuse problems, among many others. Some actuarial risk assessment tools include only static/historical risk factors, such as age of the offender and criminal history. However, some ARAIs also measure dynamic, changeable factors, such as pro-criminal attitudes. Actuarial risk assessment instruments tend to vary widely regarding the precise risk factors that are measured. Decisions about which factors to include depend on the tool developer, research findings, and the type of risk being measured. A second category of risk assessment tools involves structured professional judgment (SPJ), which guides the evaluator’s consideration of both static and dynamic risk factors, as well as the evaluator’s formulation of a risk management plan. However, unlike ARAIs, SPJ tools do not produce an automatic “risk score”; the evaluator determines the final risk estimate and makes suggestions about how the risk might be managed [9].