In: Computer Science
Value = 6.667 - 1*Qtr 1 - 3*Qtr 2 - 2*Qtr 3
Quarter 1 forecast | 5.667 |
Quarter 2 forecast | 3.667 |
Quarter 3 forecast | 4.667 |
Quarter 4 forecast | 6.667 |
Value = 3.417 + 0.219*Qtr 1 - 2.188*Qtr 2 - 1.594*Qtr 3 + 0.406*t
Quarter 1 forecast | 8.917 |
Quarter 2 forecast | 6.917 |
Quarter 3 forecast | 7.917 |
Quarter 4 forecast | 9.917 |
(b) | (d) | |
MSE | 2.833 | 0.220 |
part (d) model is more effective.
The outputs are:
R² | 0.398 | |||||
Adjusted R² | 0.173 | |||||
R | 0.631 | |||||
Std. Error | 1.683 | |||||
n | 12 | |||||
k | 3 | |||||
Dep. Var. | yt | |||||
ANOVA table | ||||||
Source | SS | df | MS | F | p-value | |
Regression | 15.0000 | 3 | 5.0000 | 1.76 | .2314 | |
Residual | 22.6667 | 8 | 2.8333 | |||
Total | 37.6667 | 11 | ||||
Regression output | confidence interval | |||||
variables | coefficients | std. error | t (df=8) | p-value | 95% lower | 95% upper |
Intercept | 6.667 | |||||
Qtr 1 | -1.000 | 1.3744 | -0.728 | .4876 | -4.1693 | 2.1693 |
Qtr 2 | -3.000 | 1.3744 | -2.183 | .0606 | -6.1693 | 0.1693 |
Qtr 3 | -2.000 | 1.3744 | -1.455 | .1837 | -5.1693 | 1.1693 |
R² | 0.959 | |||||
Adjusted R² | 0.936 | |||||
R | 0.979 | |||||
Std. Error | 0.469 | |||||
n | 12 | |||||
k | 4 | |||||
Dep. Var. | yt | |||||
ANOVA table | ||||||
Source | SS | df | MS | F | p-value | |
Regression | 36.1250 | 4 | 9.0313 | 41.01 | .0001 | |
Residual | 1.5417 | 7 | 0.2202 | |||
Total | 37.6667 | 11 | ||||
Regression output | confidence interval | |||||
variables | coefficients | std. error | t (df=7) | p-value | 95% lower | 95% upper |
Intercept | 3.417 | |||||
Qtr 1 | 0.219 | 0.4029 | 0.543 | .6040 | -0.7339 | 1.1714 |
Qtr 2 | -2.188 | 0.3921 | -5.580 | .0008 | -3.1146 | -1.2604 |
Qtr 3 | -1.594 | 0.3854 | -4.135 | .0044 | -2.5051 | -0.6824 |
t | 0.406 | 0.0415 | 9.794 | 2.45E-05 | 0.3082 | 0.5043 |