In: Operations Management
Forecasting 1. Demand data collected on yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
Registration | 4000 | 6000 | 4000 | 5000 | 10000 | 8000 | 7000 | 9000 | 12000 | 14000 | 15000 |
a. Estimate (forecast) demand again for years 4-12 with a 3-year weighted moving average in which registrations in the most recent year are given a weight of 0.50, 0.25, and 0.25.
b. Estimate (forecast) demand again for years 1-12 using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3. To being, assume that the forecast for year 1 was 5,000 people.
c. Compute the MAD forecasting error for each forecast. Which forecast is better?