Question

Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following​ table:

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Registrations (000)	5.00	7.00	3.00	5.00	9.00	9.00	7.00	11.00	13.00	14.00	12.00

a. Calculate the forecasted registrations for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing, with a smoothing constant (α) of 0.40 and a starting forecast for 5.00 year 1 (round your responses to one demical place):

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Forecast (000)	5.00	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?

b. Mean absolute deviation based on the forecast developed using the exponential smoothing method (with a smoothing constant (α) = 0.40 and a starting forecast of F1 = 5.00) is _____ registrations (round your response to one decimal place)

Answer 1

Question: Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following​ table:

Answer:

Calculations:

Excel Formulas Used:

Formulas:

Exponential Smoothing is given by:

Ft+1 = x At + (1 - ) x Ft

Example:

Year 2 = 0.40 x 5.00 + (1 - 0.40) x 5.00 = 5

Year 3 = 0.40 x 7 + (1 - 0.40) x 5.00 = 5.8

Similary we find forecast for rest of the year.

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is given by:

MAD = |Error| / n

Here:

|Error| = |Actual Data - Forecast|

Therefore:

MAD = (0 + 2 + 2.8 + 0.3 + 4.2 + 2.5 + 0.5 + 3.7 + 4.2 + 3.5 + 0.1) / 11

MAD = 23.8 / 11

MAD = 2.2