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In: Statistics and Probability

Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are...

Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Compare the exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3 and a three-year moving average forecasting method, which method do you think is better (use mean absolute deviation MAD for your analysis)? how to analyze each in excel and what determines which is best method?

      YEAR DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER (1,000s OF BAGS)
1 4
2 6
3 4
4 5
5 10
6 8
7 7
8 9
9 12
10 14
11 15

Group of answer choices

The three-year moving average is better.

Can no tell from the data given.

The exponential smoothing method is better

When smoothing constant equal to 0.3, it becomes the same model as the three-year moving average.

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