In: Statistics and Probability
Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Compare the exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3 and a three-year moving average forecasting method, which method do you think is better (use mean absolute deviation MAD for your analysis)? how to analyze each in excel and what determines which is best method?
YEAR | DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER (1,000s OF BAGS) |
1 | 4 |
2 | 6 |
3 | 4 |
4 | 5 |
5 | 10 |
6 | 8 |
7 | 7 |
8 | 9 |
9 | 12 |
10 | 14 |
11 | 15 |
Group of answer choices
The three-year moving average is better.
Can no tell from the data given.
The exponential smoothing method is better
When smoothing constant equal to 0.3, it becomes the same model as the three-year moving average.